Stevenage 2-2 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Stevenage at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Carlisle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Stevenage host Carlisle at The Lamex Stadium in League One (matchday 7). Kick-off is Saturday 9 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Stevenage — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Carlisle stand at 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Carlisle away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Stevenage are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.20 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Stevenage have won 1, Carlisle 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Stevenage 0–0 Carlisle — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Carlisle in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Carlisle 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Stevenage 36% | Carlisle 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.09 xG and Carlisle 0.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.858 / defence 0.863 | Carlisle attack 0.629 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.097. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.629 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.60. Data: built from Stevenage's last 6 games and Carlisle's last 6.
Result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 33% | Carlisle 20%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.11 | Draw 3.06 | Carlisle 5.01. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 30% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Carlisle's lower xG of 0.60 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Stevenage at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.69 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 76% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stevenage's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 70%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stevenage 40% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, matchday 7 | Venue: The Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 47% | Draw 33% | Carlisle 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 30% (No 70%) | xG Stevenage 1.09 / Carlisle 0.60 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.858 / def 0.863 | Carlisle attack 0.629 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.60
Carlisle xG
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stevenage vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Stevenage vs Carlisle kick off?
Stevenage vs Carlisle kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 9 September 2023 at The Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Stevenage 2 - 2 Carlisle.
Where is Stevenage vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at The Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Carlisle part of?
Stevenage vs Carlisle is a League One fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 47% chance of winning, Carlisle a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Stevenage and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (70%).
Will Stevenage vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.86) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carlisle's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Stevenage's last 6 games and Carlisle's last 6 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.6%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
47%
2.11
33%
3.06
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Stevenage xG
Total xG
1.69
0.60
Carlisle xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.36
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
26%
3.83
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stevenage vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.60 for Carlisle, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Stevenage's recent record stands at 28W 14D 10L from 52 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 14L across 52 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-D-L-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.88 PPG, Carlisle on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Stevenage have managed 18W 3D 4L from their last 25 home games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 9W 7D 9L across their last 25 away games, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.37 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Carlisle in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
Stevenage (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stevenage
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
❓ Stevenage vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Stevenage and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 28W 14D 10L in their last 52 games (1.88 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 21W 17D 14L in their last 52 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Carlisle away?
Stevenage's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 2.28 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Carlisle in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2021. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Stevenage's record when hosting Carlisle specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
3
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Stevenage vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Carlisle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Stevenage have won 1, Carlisle have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 March 2024: Carlisle 2-2 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Carlisle?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 36%, Carlisle 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Stevenage) and 40% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Carlisle in 32%; Carlisle in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stevenage vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stevenage and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stevenage's recent matches and 44% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stevenage and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Stevenage's recent games and 40% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Stevenage's recent matches and 60% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Carlisle share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Carlisle finished level at 2-2 at The Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.09 xG and Carlisle 0.60 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Stevenage beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Carlisle outscored their 0.60 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.86 / defence 0.86 against Carlisle attack 0.63 / defence 1.08, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 47% | Draw 33% | Carlisle 20%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 36%, Carlisle 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Carlisle's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.88 PPG, Carlisle 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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