Derby 4-0 Northampton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derby at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derby vs Northampton encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Northampton make the trip to Pride Park Stadium to face Derby in League One (matchday 7). The match kicks off on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Current Form
Derby's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Derby's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Northampton (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Northampton away from home: 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Derby. A 0.50 PPG lead over Northampton (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Derby — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 25 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Northampton — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 50% versus Northampton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 45% | Northampton 45%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Derby surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Northampton have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.920 / defence 0.805 | Northampton attack 0.790 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.131. Northampton's attack rating of 0.790 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Derby's last 60 games and Northampton's last 14.
Result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21%. Fair-value odds: Derby 2.01 | Draw 3.39 | Northampton 4.82. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 37% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 63% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derby's last 10 home games and Northampton's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derby 50% (last 10 home games) | Northampton 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Northampton | Competition: League One, matchday 7 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 31 October 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 37% (No 63%) | xG Derby 1.28 / Northampton 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.920 / def 0.805 | Northampton attack 0.790 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Derby (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Northampton xG
37%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derby vs Northampton FAQs
What time does Derby vs Northampton kick off?
Derby vs Northampton kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 31 October 2023 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Northampton?
Derby 4 - 0 Northampton.
Where is Derby vs Northampton being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Northampton part of?
Derby vs Northampton is a League One fixture (matchday 7) (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Northampton?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 50% chance of winning, Northampton a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Northampton?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Derby and Northampton will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (63%).
Will Derby vs Northampton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.92x the league average against Northampton's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Northampton's attack (0.79x) against Derby's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from Derby's last 60 games and Northampton's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.39
21%
4.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Derby xG
Total xG
2.00
0.72
Northampton xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
4.82
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.68
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
24%
4.13
6%
17.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.7 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.5 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derby vs Northampton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Northampton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Derby and Northampton expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Derby and 0.72 for Northampton, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Northampton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Derby have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 27W 16D 17L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Northampton's form line: 27W 16D 17L from 60 games, 1.62 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Derby against 1.62 for Northampton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.83 PPG from their last 29 home games (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Northampton have gone 13W 7D 9L from their last 29 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Derby are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Northampton are on 1.28 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Blended
Northampton
Blended
Derby (Home) vs Northampton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derby
Blended
Northampton
Blended
❓ Derby vs Northampton Form FAQs
What form are Derby and Northampton in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 games (1.62 PPG), while Northampton have gone 27W 16D 17L in their last 60 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Northampton away?
Derby's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.83 PPG; Northampton away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Derby or Northampton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Northampton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 23 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Derby
0
Draws
1
Northampton
Recent Meetings
❓ Derby vs Northampton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Northampton?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Derby have won 1, Northampton have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Northampton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 March 2024: Northampton 1-0 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 48%, Northampton 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Derby) and 38% (Northampton).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Northampton in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Northampton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derby vs Northampton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derby and Northampton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Derby's recent matches and 48% of Northampton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Derby and Northampton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Derby's recent games and 38% of Northampton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Northampton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Derby's recent matches and 66% of Northampton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derby run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Northampton 4-0 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 1.28 xG and Northampton 0.72 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Derby beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.92 / defence 0.81 against Northampton attack 0.79 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 50% | Draw 30% | Northampton 21%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 45%, Northampton 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Northampton's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.62 PPG, Northampton 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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