Stevenage 1-1 Bradford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Bradford travel to Lamex Stadium to take on Stevenage. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Stevenage have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Lamex Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Bradford — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bradford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Bradford have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Stevenage) versus 2.10 (Bradford). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Bradford, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Stevenage.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Bradford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bradford have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Stevenage trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bradford trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 40% versus Bradford 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 35% | Bradford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.62 xG and Bradford 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 1.091 / defence 0.775 | Bradford attack 1.106 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.086. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Stevenage games / 12 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 25% | Bradford 22%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Bradford 4.55. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stevenage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.55 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.5 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Stevenage 50% | Bradford 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bradford | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 54% | Draw 25% | Bradford 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Stevenage 1.62 / Bradford 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 1.091 / def 0.775 | Bradford attack 1.106 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Bradford xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bradford kick off?
Stevenage vs Bradford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Stevenage 1 - 1 Bradford.
Where is Stevenage vs Bradford being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bradford part of?
Stevenage vs Bradford is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 54% chance of winning, Bradford a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stevenage and Bradford will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bradford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
Record (4 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 0 | Bradford 4W.
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in?
Stevenage (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Bradford (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Stevenage's attack at 1.09x the league average against Bradford's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bradford's attack versus Stevenage's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.03
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.55
0.93
Bradford xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
20%
5.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
4%
23.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 11.8 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bradford expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Stevenage and 0.93 for Bradford, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bradford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Stevenage have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 23W 13D 21L record — D-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bradford's form line: 28W 16D 13L from 57 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-D. The sample for Bradford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Stevenage on 1.44 PPG, Bradford on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Stevenage have posted 1.68 PPG from 28 outings (14W 5D 9L).
On the road, Bradford have gone 6W 11D 11L from 28 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.75 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bradford's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stevenage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Stevenage are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bradford are on 1.47 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Bradford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bradford in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 23W 13D 21L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Bradford have gone 28W 16D 13L in their last 57 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bradford away?
Stevenage's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.68 PPG; Bradford away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bradford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bradford in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2021, when Bradford won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Stevenage's record when hosting Bradford specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Stevenage
1
Draws
4
Bradford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bradford?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 1, Bradford have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bradford last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Bradford 0-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bradford?
Bradford have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bradford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 43%, Bradford 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Stevenage) and 46% (Bradford).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bradford in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bradford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bradford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Stevenage's recent matches and 61% of Bradford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bradford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Stevenage's recent games and 46% of Bradford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bradford tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bradford in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stevenage and Bradford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stevenage and Bradford finished level at 1-1 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.62 xG and Bradford 0.93 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 1.09 / defence 0.78 against Bradford attack 1.11 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 54% | Draw 25% | Bradford 22%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 35%, Bradford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Bradford's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.44 PPG, Bradford 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.