Stevenage 1-4 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stevenage at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Stevenage vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Stevenage and Bolton meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage at Lamex Stadium this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Bolton have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bolton's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Stevenage, 1.60 for Bolton — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Stevenage, 1 for Bolton and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stevenage — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Bolton — key trading statistics (59 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 39% versus Bolton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 42% | Bolton 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.15 xG and Bolton 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.835 / defence 0.775 | Bolton attack 1.132 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.187. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Stevenage games / 58 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 29% | Bolton 33%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Bolton 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Stevenage 30% | Bolton 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stevenage vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Lamex Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stevenage 38% | Draw 29% | Bolton 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Stevenage 1.15 / Bolton 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Stevenage attack 0.835 / def 0.775 | Bolton attack 1.132 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Stevenage (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Stevenage xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bolton xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Stevenage vs Bolton kick off?
Stevenage vs Bolton kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 29 October 2024 at Lamex Stadium.
What was the final score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Stevenage 1 - 4 Bolton.
Where is Stevenage vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Lamex Stadium.
What competition is Stevenage vs Bolton part of?
Stevenage vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Stevenage a 38% chance of winning, Bolton a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Stevenage the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Stevenage and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Stevenage vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
Record (2 meetings): Stevenage 0W | Draws 1 | Bolton 1W.
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in?
Stevenage (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Bolton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Stevenage vs Bolton?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Stevenage's attack rating (0.83) and Bolton's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bolton's attack (1.13x) against Stevenage's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stevenage Win
38%
2.62
29%
3.43
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Stevenage xG
Total xG
2.19
1.04
Bolton xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
10%
9.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Stevenage and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Stevenage and 1.04 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Stevenage vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Stevenage come into this having played 59 games, going 24W 16D 19L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.76 PPG from 59 outings (30W 14D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Stevenage against 1.76 for Bolton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Stevenage's home form reads 13W 8D 7L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.68 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 1.64 points per game from 28 outings (13W 7D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Stevenage are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.75 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stevenage
Blended
Bolton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Stevenage and Bolton in coming into this match?
Stevenage have gone 24W 16D 19L in their last 59 games (1.49 PPG), while Bolton have gone 30W 14D 15L in their last 59 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stevenage at home or Bolton away?
Stevenage's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stevenage at home: 1.68 PPG; Bolton away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Stevenage or Bolton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stevenage have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Bolton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 14 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bolton won 5-1 on 14 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stevenage have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Bolton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Stevenage
3
Draws
3
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Stevenage and Bolton?
From 6 meetings on record, Stevenage have won 0, Bolton have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Stevenage and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2026, when Bolton 5-1 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Stevenage and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stevenage 36%, Bolton 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Stevenage) and 39% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Stevenage keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Bolton in 32%; Stevenage have failed to score in 29% of games; Bolton in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stevenage home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Stevenage play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Stevenage's recent matches and 46% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Stevenage vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Stevenage's recent games and 39% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stevenage and Bolton tend to score early?
Stevenage have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bolton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bolton run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Stevenage 1-4 at Lamex Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stevenage 1.15 xG and Bolton 1.04 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Bolton outscored their 1.04 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stevenage attack 0.83 / defence 0.78 against Bolton attack 1.13 / defence 1.02, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stevenage 38% | Draw 29% | Bolton 33%, with Stevenage to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bolton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stevenage 42%, Bolton 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stevenage's trading profile (59 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Bolton's trading profile (59 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stevenage 1.49 PPG, Bolton 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bolton win broke the near-deadlock. Stevenage (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bolton (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.