Shrewsbury 1-0 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shrewsbury vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shrewsbury host Lincoln at The Croud Meadow in League One (matchday 22). Kick-off is Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Shrewsbury — last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Shrewsbury have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lincoln stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Lincoln have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lincoln — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Shrewsbury have won 2, Lincoln 3, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 27 Feb 2024, ended Shrewsbury 0–3 Lincoln — a Lincoln win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Shrewsbury in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Lincoln in-play tendencies (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 41% versus Lincoln 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 44% | Lincoln 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Shrewsbury surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Lincoln have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.09 xG and Lincoln 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.870 / defence 1.381 | Lincoln attack 0.912 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.161. Shrewsbury's defence rating of 1.381 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Shrewsbury's last 66 games and Lincoln's last 67.
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 28% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 46%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 3.55 | Draw 3.83 | Lincoln 2.19. Lincoln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lincoln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shrewsbury 50% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 22 | Venue: The Croud Meadow • Kick-off: Thursday 26 December 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 28% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shrewsbury 1.09 / Lincoln 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.870 / def 1.381 | Lincoln attack 0.912 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Lincoln xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Shrewsbury vs Lincoln kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Thursday 26 December 2024 at The Croud Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Shrewsbury 1 - 0 Lincoln.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at The Croud Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Lincoln part of?
Shrewsbury vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 28% chance of winning, Lincoln a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shrewsbury and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shrewsbury vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.87) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lincoln's attack versus Shrewsbury's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Shrewsbury's last 66 games and Lincoln's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
28%
3.55
26%
3.83
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.55
1.46
Lincoln xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
7%
15.30
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shrewsbury vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 1.46 for Lincoln, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Lincoln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shrewsbury come into this having played 66 games, going 16W 12D 38L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-D.
On the other side, Lincoln sit at 1.59 PPG from 66 outings (28W 21D 17L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-W across their last five.
Lincoln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Shrewsbury — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shrewsbury's home form reads 10W 4D 19L across their last 33 home games, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Lincoln have taken 1.55 points per game from their last 33 away games (13W 12D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.41 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
Shrewsbury (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shrewsbury
Blended
Lincoln
Blended
❓ Shrewsbury vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Shrewsbury and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 16W 12D 38L in their last 66 games (0.91 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 28W 21D 17L in their last 66 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.03 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Shrewsbury or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shrewsbury have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Lincoln in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Feb 2024, when Lincoln won Lincoln 3-0 Shrewsbury.
Shrewsbury's record when hosting Lincoln specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
3
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Shrewsbury vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Lincoln?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Shrewsbury have won 3, Lincoln have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Lincoln 1-1 Shrewsbury.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lincoln see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 42%, Lincoln 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Shrewsbury) and 33% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 33%; Shrewsbury have failed to score in 42% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shrewsbury vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shrewsbury and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 52% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shrewsbury and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 33% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Shrewsbury's recent matches and 58% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shrewsbury defy the odds to beat Lincoln 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury beat Lincoln 1-0 at The Croud Meadow, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.09 xG and Lincoln 1.46 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lincoln landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.87 / defence 1.38 against Lincoln attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 28% | Draw 26% | Lincoln 46%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Shrewsbury win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 44%, Lincoln 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
Lincoln's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lincoln arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 0.91. Form was overturned, with Shrewsbury winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shrewsbury (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line. Lincoln (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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