Charlton 2-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charlton at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Cambridge United travel to The Valley to take on Charlton. The game is scheduled for Thursday 26 December 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Charlton have posted 3W 5D 2L at The Valley — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cambridge United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambridge United's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Charlton) versus 1.30 (Cambridge United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Charlton have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 6 past contests while Cambridge United have managed just 0 wins.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Charlton a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Cambridge United in-play tendencies (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Cambridge United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 47% | Cambridge United 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.45 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.862 / defence 0.973 | Cambridge United attack 0.809 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.161. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Charlton games / 66 Cambridge United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Cambridge United 4.17. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.36 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 60% | Cambridge United 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Charlton 1.45 / Cambridge United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.862 / def 0.973 | Cambridge United attack 0.809 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Charlton (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cambridge United xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cambridge United kick off?
Charlton vs Cambridge United kicked off at 15:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Charlton 2 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Charlton vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cambridge United part of?
Charlton vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 50% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Record (6 meetings): Charlton 3W | Draws 3 | Cambridge United 0W.
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in?
Charlton (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Charlton's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Cambridge United's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
50%
2.02
27%
3.75
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.36
0.92
Cambridge United xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.5 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Charlton and 0.92 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 66 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 18W 26D 22L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cambridge United's form line: 16W 17D 33L from 66 games, 0.98 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-L. The sample for Cambridge United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.21 PPG, Cambridge United on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.41 PPG from 32 outings (11W 12D 9L).
On the road, Cambridge United have gone 4W 7D 21L from 32 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Charlton are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 0.89 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 66 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cambridge United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 18W 26D 22L in their last 66 games (1.21 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 16W 17D 33L in their last 66 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cambridge United away?
Charlton's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.41 PPG; Cambridge United away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Charlton have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Charlton's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Charlton
3
Draws
0
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cambridge United?
From 8 meetings on record, Charlton have won 5, Cambridge United have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cambridge United 0-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Cambridge United?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cambridge United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 69%, Cambridge United 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Charlton) and 50% (Cambridge United).
On the defensive side: Cambridge United in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Charlton's recent matches and 34% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Charlton's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out Cambridge United 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Cambridge United 2-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 22, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.45 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Cambridge United attack 0.81 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 50% | Draw 27% | Cambridge United 24%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 47%, Cambridge United 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Cambridge United's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.21 PPG, Cambridge United 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.