Port Vale 1-0 Carlisle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port Vale face Carlisle.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Carlisle make the trip to Vale Park to face Port Vale in League One (matchday 5). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Port Vale's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, Port Vale have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Carlisle (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Carlisle's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Port Vale against 1.00 for Carlisle. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Port Vale edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Feb 2022, ended Port Vale 3–1 Carlisle — a Port Vale win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Carlisle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 46% versus Carlisle 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 52% | Carlisle 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Port Vale surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Carlisle have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 46% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.21 xG and Carlisle 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.926 / defence 0.968 | Carlisle attack 0.716 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.110. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.716 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Data: built from Port Vale's last 50 games and Carlisle's last 4.
Result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 24%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.15 | Draw 3.33 | Carlisle 4.25. Port Vale hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 68% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Port Vale's last 10 home games and Carlisle's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Port Vale 40% (last 10 home games) | Carlisle 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Carlisle | Competition: League One, matchday 5 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 August 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 46% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Port Vale 1.21 / Carlisle 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.926 / def 0.968 | Carlisle attack 0.716 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Carlisle xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle FAQs
What time does Port Vale vs Carlisle kick off?
Port Vale vs Carlisle kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 26 August 2023 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Carlisle.
Where is Port Vale vs Carlisle being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Carlisle part of?
Port Vale vs Carlisle is a League One fixture (matchday 5) (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 46% chance of winning, Carlisle a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Port Vale and Carlisle will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Port Vale vs Carlisle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (0.93) and Carlisle's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Carlisle's attack (0.72x) against Port Vale's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from Port Vale's last 50 games and Carlisle's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
46%
2.15
30%
3.33
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Port Vale xG
Total xG
1.98
0.77
Carlisle xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Carlisle expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Port Vale and 0.77 for Carlisle, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Carlisle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Port Vale's recent record stands at 15W 11D 24L from 50 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-W in the last five.
Carlisle, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 13L across 50 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Carlisle by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port Vale heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 9W 5D 10L from their last 24 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carlisle's away record stands at 9W 7D 8L across their last 24 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Carlisle are on 1.38 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Carlisle in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
Port Vale (Home) vs Carlisle (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port Vale
Early Season
Carlisle
Early Season
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Form FAQs
What form are Port Vale and Carlisle in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 15W 11D 24L in their last 50 games (1.12 PPG), while Carlisle have gone 20W 17D 13L in their last 50 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Carlisle away?
Carlisle's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.33 PPG; Carlisle away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Carlisle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Carlisle in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent in our data was on 18 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 2D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Carlisle — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Port Vale
2
Draws
2
Carlisle
Recent Meetings
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Carlisle?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Port Vale have won 2, Carlisle have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Carlisle last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2025: Carlisle 3-2 Port Vale.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 42%, Carlisle 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Port Vale) and 42% (Carlisle).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Carlisle in 33%; Port Vale have failed to score in 29% of games; Carlisle in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Carlisle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port Vale vs Carlisle Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port Vale and Carlisle matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Port Vale's recent matches and 46% of Carlisle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Port Vale and Carlisle matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Port Vale's recent games and 42% of Carlisle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Carlisle matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Port Vale's recent matches and 62% of Carlisle's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Carlisle 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Carlisle 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 5, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.21 xG and Carlisle 0.77 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.93 / defence 0.97 against Carlisle attack 0.72 / defence 1.10, drawn from 50/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 46% | Draw 30% | Carlisle 24%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 52%, Carlisle 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Carlisle's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Carlisle arrived the stronger side — 1.54 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with Port Vale winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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