Charlton 2-3 Port Vale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Port Vale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Port Vale make the trip to The Valley to face Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 August 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Charlton have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Port Vale have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Port Vale have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port Vale away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Charlton's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Port Vale's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Charlton have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Port Vale in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Charlton, 1 for Port Vale and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with Charlton winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 59% versus Port Vale 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Port Vale 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.90 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.050 / defence 1.063 | Port Vale attack 0.781 / defence 1.459. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.148. Port Vale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.459 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Charlton games / 49 Port Vale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Port Vale 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 70% | Port Vale 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Port Vale | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Aug 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 1.90 / Port Vale 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.050 / def 1.063 | Port Vale attack 0.781 / def 1.459 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Charlton (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Port Vale xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Port Vale kick off?
Charlton vs Port Vale kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 August 2023 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Charlton 2 - 3 Port Vale.
Where is Charlton vs Port Vale being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Port Vale part of?
Charlton vs Port Vale is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 60% chance of winning, Port Vale a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Port Vale will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Port Vale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Port Vale?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 1W | Draws 0 | Port Vale 1W.
What form are Charlton and Port Vale in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Port Vale (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.05x the league average against Port Vale's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port Vale's attack (0.78x) against Charlton's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.55
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.86
0.95
Port Vale xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
39%
2.60
15%
6.70
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
3%
36.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Charlton and Port Vale expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Charlton and 0.95 for Port Vale, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Port Vale?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Charlton come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 14D 18L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Charlton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Port Vale sit at 1.08 PPG from 49 outings (14W 11D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Port Vale, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Charlton against 1.08 for Port Vale. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Charlton's home form reads 10W 7D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Port Vale have taken 0.84 points per game from 25 outings (5W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Charlton are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Port Vale are on 1.00 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 49 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Early Season
Port Vale
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Port Vale in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 17W 14D 18L in their last 49 games (1.33 PPG), while Port Vale have gone 14W 11D 24L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Port Vale away?
Charlton's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.48 PPG; Port Vale away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Charlton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Port Vale — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
2
Port Vale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Port Vale?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Port Vale have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Port Vale last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Port Vale 3-3 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and Port Vale?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 68%, Port Vale 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Charlton) and 60% (Port Vale). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port Vale in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Port Vale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Port Vale?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Charlton's games and 48% of Port Vale's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charlton vs Port Vale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Charlton's matches and 60% of Port Vale's.
Do Charlton and Port Vale tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Port Vale in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port Vale defy the odds to beat Charlton 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Charlton 2-3 at The Valley, Regular Season - 4, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.90 xG and Port Vale 0.95 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Port Vale outscored their 0.95 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Port Vale attack 0.78 / defence 1.46, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 60% | Draw 22% | Port Vale 18%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Port Vale win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Port Vale 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (49 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Port Vale's trading profile (49 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.33 PPG, Port Vale 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port Vale (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.