Plymouth vs Stevenage – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 January 2027 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Plymouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.50 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Plymouth, 1 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2026, ended 0–3 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 52% versus Stevenage 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.29 xG and Stevenage 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.977 / defence 1.004 | Stevenage attack 0.879 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.292. Data: 58 Plymouth games / 56 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Plymouth 60% | Stevenage 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Jan 2027, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 39% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Plymouth 1.29 / Stevenage 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.977 / def 1.004 | Stevenage attack 0.879 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Stevenage xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stevenage kick off?
Plymouth vs Stevenage is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 January 2027 at Home Park.
Where is Plymouth vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stevenage part of?
Plymouth vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 39% chance of winning, Stevenage a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Plymouth and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Plymouth 1W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in?
Plymouth (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Stevenage (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
39%
2.56
29%
3.42
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.44
1.14
Stevenage xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
9%
11.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.0 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.14 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 28W 8D 22L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Plymouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stevenage's form line: 25W 15D 18L from 58 games, 1.55 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.59 PPG, Stevenage on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (13W 4D 12L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 8W 7D 14L from 29 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Plymouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.10 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Blended
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 28W 8D 22L in their last 58 games (1.59 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 25W 15D 18L in their last 58 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stevenage away?
Plymouth's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.48 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stevenage in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 20 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2026, when Stevenage won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
From 3 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 20 October 2026, when Stevenage 3-0 Plymouth.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 55%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Plymouth) and 41% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Plymouth's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Plymouth's recent games and 41% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Stevenage tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.