Northampton 0-3 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Portsmouth at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Portsmouth make the trip to Sixfields Stadium to face Northampton in League One, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Northampton (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton at Sixfields Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Portsmouth's overall League One record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Portsmouth arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Northampton have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Portsmouth in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Northampton — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Portsmouth — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Portsmouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 47% | Portsmouth 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.04 xG and Portsmouth 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 1.011 / defence 1.103 | Portsmouth attack 1.282 / defence 0.750. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.137. Portsmouth's defence strength of 0.750 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Portsmouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.282 — the away xG of 1.61 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 18 Northampton games / 64 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 50%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 4.17 | Draw 3.85 | Portsmouth 2.00. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Portsmouth as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Northampton 60% | Portsmouth 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 24% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Northampton 1.04 / Portsmouth 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 1.011 / def 1.103 | Portsmouth attack 1.282 / def 0.750 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Portsmouth xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Portsmouth kick off?
Northampton vs Portsmouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Portsmouth?
Northampton 0 - 3 Portsmouth.
Where is Northampton vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Portsmouth part of?
Northampton vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 24% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Northampton and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Portsmouth?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Northampton and Portsmouth in?
Northampton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Portsmouth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Northampton's attack at 1.01x the league average against Portsmouth's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Portsmouth's attack (1.28x) against Northampton's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 18/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.8%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
24%
4.12
26%
3.90
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.61
Portsmouth xG
4.12
24%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
20%
4.99
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
5%
20.55
18%
5.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Northampton and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Northampton and 1.61 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 64 outings, Northampton have picked up 1.66 PPG on a 30W 16D 18L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 28W 25D 11L from 64 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Northampton against 1.70 for Portsmouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Northampton have posted 1.71 PPG from 31 outings (15W 8D 8L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 13W 11D 7L from 31 away games — 1.61 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Northampton are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.41 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 30W 16D 18L in their last 64 games (1.66 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 28W 25D 11L in their last 64 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Portsmouth away?
Northampton's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.71 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Northampton or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Northampton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Northampton
0
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Portsmouth?
From 2 meetings on record, Northampton have won 0, Portsmouth have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2024, when Portsmouth 4-1 Northampton.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 55%, Portsmouth 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Northampton) and 39% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Portsmouth in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Northampton's recent matches and 48% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Northampton vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Northampton's recent games and 39% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Northampton and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Portsmouth run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Northampton.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Northampton 0-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.04 xG and Portsmouth 1.61 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Northampton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Portsmouth outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 1.01 / defence 1.10 against Portsmouth attack 1.28 / defence 0.75, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 24% | Draw 26% | Portsmouth 50%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 47%, Portsmouth 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Portsmouth's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.66 PPG, Portsmouth 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Portsmouth win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Portsmouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.