Burton Albion 0-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Portsmouth (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Burton Albion face Portsmouth.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 20 as Burton Albion welcome Portsmouth to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 League One matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Portsmouth's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Burton Albion, 3 for Portsmouth and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Portsmouth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Portsmouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Portsmouth 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Portsmouth 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.986 / defence 0.967 | Portsmouth attack 1.238 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Portsmouth have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Burton Albion games / 63 Portsmouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Portsmouth 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 50% | Portsmouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Burton Albion 1.16 / Portsmouth 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.986 / def 0.967 | Portsmouth attack 1.238 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Portsmouth xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 31% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Portsmouth will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Record (4 meetings): Burton Albion 1W | Draws 0 | Portsmouth 3W.
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Portsmouth (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Portsmouth's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.68
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.53
1.37
Portsmouth xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.37 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 16D 27L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Portsmouth's form line: 27W 25D 11L from 63 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 12W 11D 7L from 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.40 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 27W 25D 11L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.53 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Portsmouth have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
5
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
From 6 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Portsmouth have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Portsmouth last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2024, when Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Portsmouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Burton Albion) and 40% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 40%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Portsmouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 50% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Burton Albion's recent games and 40% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Portsmouth tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Portsmouth in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Portsmouth 1.37 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Portsmouth attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Portsmouth 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portsmouth's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.