Burton Albion 0-2 Portsmouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Portsmouth at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Burton Albion vs Portsmouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Burton Albion welcome Portsmouth to Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 20). Kick-off is Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Burton Albion — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Burton Albion have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Portsmouth stand at 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Portsmouth's form when playing away from home: 4W 6D 0L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Portsmouth's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Burton Albion's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Burton Albion have won 1, Portsmouth 3, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2023, ended Burton Albion 0–1 Portsmouth — a Portsmouth win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (last 63 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Portsmouth 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Portsmouth 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Burton Albion surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Portsmouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Portsmouth 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.986 / defence 0.967 | Portsmouth attack 1.238 / defence 0.851. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.144. Portsmouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.238, which lifts their away xG to 1.37. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 64 games and Portsmouth's last 63.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.18 | Draw 3.68 | Portsmouth 2.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 50% (last 10 home games) | Portsmouth 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Portsmouth | Competition: League One, matchday 20 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Burton Albion 1.16 / Portsmouth 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.986 / def 0.967 | Portsmouth attack 1.238 / def 0.851 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Portsmouth xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Portsmouth FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kick off?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Burton Albion 0 - 2 Portsmouth.
Where is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Portsmouth part of?
Burton Albion vs Portsmouth is a League One fixture (matchday 20) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 31% chance of winning, Portsmouth a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Burton Albion and Portsmouth will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Burton Albion vs Portsmouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Portsmouth's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. The same calculation in reverse, Portsmouth's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 64 games and Portsmouth's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.68
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.53
1.37
Portsmouth xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
8%
12.51
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.9 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Portsmouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Portsmouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.37 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Portsmouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 20W 16D 27L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Portsmouth's form line: 27W 25D 11L from 63 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Venue Form
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.53 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Portsmouth have gone 12W 11D 7L from their last 30 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Portsmouth are on 1.40 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
Burton Albion (Home) vs Portsmouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Portsmouth
Blended
❓ Burton Albion vs Portsmouth Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Portsmouth in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 20W 16D 27L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Portsmouth have gone 27W 25D 11L in their last 63 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Portsmouth away?
Portsmouth's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.53 PPG; Portsmouth away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Portsmouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Portsmouth in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from September 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 12 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Portsmouth have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Portsmouth specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
0
Draws
5
Portsmouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Portsmouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Portsmouth have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Portsmouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 March 2024: Portsmouth 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Portsmouth?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 50%, Portsmouth 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Burton Albion) and 40% (Portsmouth).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth in 40%; Burton Albion have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Portsmouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Portsmouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Portsmouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 50% of Portsmouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Portsmouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Burton Albion's recent games and 40% of Portsmouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Portsmouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 73% of Portsmouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Portsmouth cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Burton Albion 0-2 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.16 xG and Portsmouth 1.37 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.99 / defence 0.97 against Portsmouth attack 1.24 / defence 0.85, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 31% | Draw 27% | Portsmouth 41%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Portsmouth 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Portsmouth's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Portsmouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 20
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →