Leyton Orient 1-2 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Leyton Orient face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Leyton Orient welcome Peterborough to Gaughan Group Stadium in League One (matchday 42). Kick-off is Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Leyton Orient have gone 4W 1D 5L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Leyton Orient's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Peterborough's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Leyton Orient) versus 1.50 (Peterborough). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Leyton Orient, 0 for Peterborough and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Leyton Orient 1–1 Peterborough — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Leyton Orient in-play and half-time data (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Peterborough in-play and half-time data (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 38% versus Peterborough 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 34% | Peterborough 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.12 xG and Peterborough 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.791 / defence 1.099 | Peterborough attack 1.260 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.187. Leyton Orient's attack rating of 0.791 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Peterborough have an above-average attack rating of 1.260, which lifts their away xG to 1.64. Data: built from Leyton Orient's last 40 games and Peterborough's last 85.
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 26% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 49%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 3.84 | Draw 4.08 | Peterborough 2.02. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Leyton Orient 30% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 26% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Leyton Orient 1.12 / Peterborough 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.791 / def 1.099 | Peterborough attack 1.260 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Peterborough xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Leyton Orient vs Peterborough kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Leyton Orient 1 - 2 Peterborough.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Peterborough part of?
Leyton Orient vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 26% chance of winning, Peterborough a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Leyton Orient and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Leyton Orient vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Leyton Orient's attack rating (0.79) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 1.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Leyton Orient's last 40 games and Peterborough's last 85 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
26%
3.84
24%
4.08
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.77
1.64
Peterborough xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
5%
19.88
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.64 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Leyton Orient's recent record stands at 42W 23D 21L from 86 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Peterborough, meanwhile, have gone 45W 13D 28L across 86 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Leyton Orient on 1.73 PPG, Peterborough on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Leyton Orient have managed 23W 10D 9L from their last 42 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Peterborough's away record stands at 20W 5D 17L across their last 42 away games, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.77 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Leyton Orient (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Leyton Orient
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Leyton Orient and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 42W 23D 21L in their last 86 games (1.73 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 45W 13D 28L in their last 86 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Peterborough away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.88 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Peterborough in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Leyton Orient have won 1, Peterborough have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Leyton Orient 2-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Leyton Orient see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 31%, Peterborough 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Leyton Orient) and 57% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 55% of their matches; Leyton Orient have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Leyton Orient vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 57% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 57% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 55% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 67% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Peterborough edge out Leyton Orient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Leyton Orient 1-2 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.12 xG and Peterborough 1.64 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.79 / defence 1.10 against Peterborough attack 1.26 / defence 1.09, drawn from 40/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 26% | Draw 24% | Peterborough 49%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 34%, Peterborough 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Peterborough's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Leyton Orient 1.73 PPG, Peterborough 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Peterborough win broke the near-deadlock. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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