Carlisle 1-3 Lincoln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lincoln at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Carlisle vs Lincoln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brunton Park plays host to Carlisle versus Lincoln in League One (matchday 42). Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Carlisle have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Carlisle at home: 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lincoln's record over their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L (2.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Lincoln's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Lincoln are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Carlisle 1–1 Lincoln — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Carlisle half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 42 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lincoln half-time and goal-timing data (last 86 games, 42 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 32 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 34%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 51% versus Lincoln 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Carlisle 45% | Lincoln 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.85 xG and Lincoln 2.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.792 / defence 1.618 | Lincoln attack 1.131 / defence 0.825. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.187. Carlisle's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Carlisle's defence rating of 1.618 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lincoln's projected output up. Data: built from Carlisle's last 40 games and Lincoln's last 86.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 13% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 68%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 7.45 | Draw 5.27 | Lincoln 1.48. The model has a clear lean to Lincoln (68%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lincoln at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Lincoln's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 70% (last 10 home games) | Lincoln 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Lincoln | Competition: League One, matchday 42 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 13% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Carlisle 0.85 / Lincoln 2.17 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.792 / def 1.618 | Lincoln attack 1.131 / def 0.825 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Lincoln (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
2.17
Lincoln xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Lincoln FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Lincoln kick off?
Carlisle vs Lincoln kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Monday 1 April 2024 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Lincoln?
Carlisle 1 - 3 Lincoln.
Where is Carlisle vs Lincoln being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Lincoln part of?
Carlisle vs Lincoln is a League One fixture (matchday 42) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Lincoln?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 13% chance of winning, Lincoln a 68% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Lincoln the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Lincoln?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Carlisle and Lincoln will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Carlisle vs Lincoln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Carlisle's attack rating (0.79) and Lincoln's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lincoln's attack (1.13x) against Carlisle's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 2.17.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 40 games and Lincoln's last 86 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lincoln Win
13%
7.45
19%
5.27
68%
1.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Carlisle xG
Total xG
3.02
2.17
Lincoln xG
7.45
13%
Home win
5.27
19%
Draw
1.48
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
11%
8.78
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
2%
65.46
29%
3.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 11.5 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 2.0 |
| 1 | 4.1 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 |
| 2 | 1.8 | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Lincoln Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Lincoln?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Lincoln expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Carlisle and 2.17 for Lincoln, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Lincoln?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 86 outings, Carlisle have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 26W 24D 36L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Lincoln's form line: 31W 33D 22L from 86 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Carlisle against 1.47 for Lincoln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Carlisle have posted 1.26 PPG from their last 42 home games (13W 14D 15L).
On the road, Lincoln have gone 14W 12D 16L from their last 42 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Carlisle are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lincoln are on 1.21 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Lincoln in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
Carlisle (Home) vs Lincoln (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Current Season
Lincoln
Current Season
❓ Carlisle vs Lincoln Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Lincoln in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 26W 24D 36L in their last 86 games (1.19 PPG), while Lincoln have gone 31W 33D 22L in their last 86 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Lincoln away?
Lincoln's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.26 PPG; Lincoln away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Lincoln been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Lincoln in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carlisle
1
Draws
1
Lincoln
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Lincoln H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Lincoln?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 0, Lincoln have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Lincoln last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2024: Carlisle 1-3 Lincoln.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Lincoln?
Lincoln have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 52%, Lincoln 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Carlisle) and 36% (Lincoln).
On the defensive side: Lincoln in 36%; Carlisle have failed to score in 31% of games; Lincoln in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Lincoln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Lincoln Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Lincoln matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Carlisle's recent matches and 40% of Lincoln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Lincoln matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Carlisle's recent games and 36% of Lincoln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Lincoln matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Carlisle's recent matches and 74% of Lincoln's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lincoln cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lincoln beat Carlisle 1-3 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 42, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.85 xG and Lincoln 2.17 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lincoln outscored their 2.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.79 / defence 1.62 against Lincoln attack 1.13 / defence 0.82, drawn from 40/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 13% | Draw 19% | Lincoln 68%, with Lincoln to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 45%, Lincoln 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Lincoln's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.19 PPG, Lincoln 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lincoln win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lincoln (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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