Leyton Orient 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Leyton Orient at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 20 as Leyton Orient welcome Burton Albion to Gaughan Group Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Leyton Orient have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Leyton Orient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Leyton Orient's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Gaughan Group Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Burton Albion — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Leyton Orient are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Leyton Orient, 1 for Burton Albion and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Burton Albion winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Leyton Orient trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Burton Albion trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leyton Orient 41% versus Burton Albion 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leyton Orient 47% | Burton Albion 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leyton Orient 1.33 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leyton Orient attack 0.980 / defence 0.912 | Burton Albion attack 0.875 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.097. Data: 64 Leyton Orient games / 64 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25%. Fair-value odds: Leyton Orient 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Burton Albion 4.00. Leyton Orient hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Leyton Orient as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Leyton Orient offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Leyton Orient 30% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Gaughan Group Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Leyton Orient 1.33 / Burton Albion 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Leyton Orient attack 0.980 / def 0.912 | Burton Albion attack 0.875 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Leyton Orient (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Leyton Orient xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Burton Albion xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion kick off?
Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 14 December 2024 at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What was the final score in Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Leyton Orient 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Gaughan Group Stadium.
What competition is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion part of?
Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Leyton Orient a 47% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Leyton Orient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Leyton Orient and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): Leyton Orient 0W | Draws 1 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion in?
Leyton Orient (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Leyton Orient's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus Leyton Orient's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leyton Orient Win
47%
2.12
28%
3.55
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Leyton Orient xG
Total xG
2.20
0.88
Burton Albion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 0.88 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Leyton Orient come into this having played 64 games, going 24W 14D 26L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Leyton Orient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 0.89 PPG from 64 outings (14W 15D 35L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Leyton Orient carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Leyton Orient's home form reads 12W 7D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.87 points per game from 31 outings (6W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leyton Orient come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Leyton Orient are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.86 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leyton Orient
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leyton Orient and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Leyton Orient have gone 24W 14D 26L in their last 64 games (1.34 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 15D 35L in their last 64 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leyton Orient at home or Burton Albion away?
Leyton Orient's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leyton Orient at home: 1.39 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Leyton Orient or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leyton Orient have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Leyton Orient won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Leyton Orient's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Leyton Orient
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Leyton Orient have won 1, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Leyton Orient and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Leyton Orient 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Leyton Orient and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Leyton Orient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leyton Orient 42%, Burton Albion 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Leyton Orient) and 52% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Leyton Orient keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Leyton Orient have failed to score in 32% of games; Burton Albion in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leyton Orient home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leyton Orient play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Leyton Orient's recent matches and 45% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leyton Orient vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Leyton Orient's recent games and 52% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Leyton Orient and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Leyton Orient have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Leyton Orient's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leyton Orient and Burton Albion finished level at 0-0 at Gaughan Group Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leyton Orient 1.33 xG and Burton Albion 0.88 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Leyton Orient fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leyton Orient attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 1.03, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leyton Orient 47% | Draw 28% | Burton Albion 25%, with Leyton Orient to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leyton Orient 47%, Burton Albion 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leyton Orient's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leyton Orient arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.89. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Leyton Orient (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.