Crawley Town 3-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Stevenage (40%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Crawley Town face Stevenage.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Broadfield Stadium plays host to Crawley Town versus Stevenage in League One (matchday 19). Kick-off: Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Current Form

Crawley Town's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

At home, Crawley Town have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Stevenage (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Stevenage away from home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (60%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Stevenage arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Stevenage have the stronger record — 3 wins to Crawley Town's 0, with 1 draw.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2022, ended Crawley Town 1–3 Stevenage — a Stevenage win.

The H2H data backs the away side. Stevenage have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading Data

Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 74 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 53% versus Stevenage 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 57% | Stevenage 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 0.91 xG and Stevenage 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.856 / defence 1.280 | Stevenage attack 0.729 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.729 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Crawley Town's defence rating of 1.280 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 28 games and Stevenage's last 74.

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 29% | Draw 31% | Stevenage 40%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.40 | Draw 3.24 | Stevenage 2.52. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Stevenage as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 50% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 20% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights