Northampton 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Northampton at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Northampton vs Peterborough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 9 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Northampton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sixfields Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 League One matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Peterborough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Northampton at 1.00 PPG versus Peterborough's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Northampton, 1 for Peterborough and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2024, ended 1–5 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Northampton trading profile (64 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Peterborough trading profile (64 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 53% versus Peterborough 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 50% | Peterborough 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.873 / defence 0.971 | Peterborough attack 1.113 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.098. Peterborough bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Northampton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Northampton games / 63 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Peterborough 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Northampton at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Northampton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Northampton 40% | Peterborough 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Northampton vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sixfields Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 9 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Northampton 1.47 / Peterborough 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Northampton attack 0.873 / def 0.971 | Peterborough attack 1.113 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Northampton (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Northampton xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Peterborough xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Northampton vs Peterborough kick off?
Northampton vs Peterborough kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 9 December 2024 at Sixfields Stadium.
What was the final score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Northampton 2 - 1 Peterborough.
Where is Northampton vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Sixfields Stadium.
What competition is Northampton vs Peterborough part of?
Northampton vs Peterborough is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Northampton a 44% chance of winning, Peterborough a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Northampton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Northampton and Peterborough will score (BTTS).
Will Northampton vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
Record (2 meetings): Northampton 1W | Draws 0 | Peterborough 1W.
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in?
Northampton (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-L. Peterborough (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Northampton's attack rating (0.87) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Peterborough's attack versus Northampton's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Northampton Win
44%
2.29
26%
3.88
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Northampton xG
Total xG
2.65
1.19
Peterborough xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.28
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.52
7%
14.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Northampton and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Northampton and 1.19 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Northampton vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Northampton come into this having played 64 games, going 21W 15D 28L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-L. The sample for Northampton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Peterborough sit at 1.61 PPG from 64 outings (30W 13D 21L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Peterborough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Northampton on 1.22 PPG, Peterborough on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Northampton's home form reads 14W 7D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Northampton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Peterborough have taken 1.47 points per game from 30 outings (13W 5D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Northampton are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.89 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough in 64%.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Northampton
Blended
Peterborough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Northampton and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Northampton have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 30W 13D 21L in their last 64 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Northampton at home or Peterborough away?
Northampton's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Northampton at home: 1.63 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Northampton and Peterborough runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2024, when Peterborough won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Northampton's record when hosting Peterborough specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Northampton
1
Draws
2
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Northampton and Peterborough?
From 6 meetings on record, Northampton have won 3, Peterborough have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Northampton and Peterborough last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Northampton 1-1 Peterborough.
Who has won more matches between Northampton and Peterborough?
Northampton have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Northampton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Northampton 47%, Peterborough 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Northampton) and 63% (Peterborough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Northampton keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Northampton home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Northampton play Peterborough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Northampton's games and 63% of Peterborough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Northampton vs Peterborough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of Northampton's matches and 63% of Peterborough's.
Do Northampton and Peterborough tend to score early?
Northampton have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Peterborough in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Northampton edge out Peterborough 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Northampton beat Peterborough 2-1 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 1.47 xG and Peterborough 1.19 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Peterborough attack 1.11 / defence 1.28, drawn from 64/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Northampton 44% | Draw 26% | Peterborough 31%, with Northampton to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 50%, Peterborough 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Northampton's trading profile (64 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (64 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Northampton 1.22 PPG, Peterborough 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Northampton win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.