Cheltenham 0-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cheltenham vs Burton Albion fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Completely-Suzuki Stadium plays host to Cheltenham versus Burton Albion in League One, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Cheltenham (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Cheltenham have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Cheltenham are significantly better at Completely-Suzuki Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Burton Albion's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.10 for Burton Albion. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Cheltenham 0W, Burton Albion 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Burton Albion half-time and goal-timing data (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cheltenham 38% versus Burton Albion 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cheltenham 42% | Burton Albion 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cheltenham 1.51 xG and Burton Albion 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cheltenham attack 1.073 / defence 1.144 | Burton Albion attack 0.827 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.200. Data: 79 Cheltenham games / 80 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cheltenham 46% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 28%. Fair-value odds: Cheltenham 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Burton Albion 3.57. Cheltenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cheltenham at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cheltenham 60% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cheltenham vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Completely-Suzuki Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cheltenham 46% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Cheltenham 1.51 / Burton Albion 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Cheltenham attack 1.073 / def 1.144 | Burton Albion attack 0.827 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Cheltenham (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cheltenham xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Burton Albion xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cheltenham vs Burton Albion kick off?
Cheltenham vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What was the final score in Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Cheltenham 0 - 0 Burton Albion.
Where is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Completely-Suzuki Stadium.
What competition is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion part of?
Cheltenham vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Cheltenham a 46% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cheltenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cheltenham and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Cheltenham vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Burton Albion?
Record (4 meetings): Cheltenham 0W | Draws 3 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Cheltenham and Burton Albion in?
Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cheltenham's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.83x) against Cheltenham's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 79/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cheltenham Win
46%
2.17
26%
3.91
28%
3.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cheltenham xG
Total xG
2.65
1.14
Burton Albion xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.51
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
6%
15.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cheltenham and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cheltenham and 1.14 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Cheltenham vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cheltenham come into this having played 79 games, going 23W 18D 38L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Burton Albion sit at 1.19 PPG from 79 outings (25W 19D 35L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Cheltenham against 1.19 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cheltenham's home form reads 14W 11D 14L across 39 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Burton Albion have taken 0.97 points per game from 39 outings (10W 8D 21L).
Attack vs Defence
Cheltenham are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.09 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 79 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cheltenham
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cheltenham and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Cheltenham have gone 23W 18D 38L in their last 79 games (1.10 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 25W 19D 35L in their last 79 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cheltenham at home or Burton Albion away?
Cheltenham's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cheltenham at home: 1.36 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cheltenham have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cheltenham
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cheltenham and Burton Albion?
From 6 meetings on record, Cheltenham have won 1, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cheltenham and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 16 April 2024, when Burton Albion 1-2 Cheltenham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cheltenham 44%, Burton Albion 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Cheltenham) and 54% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Cheltenham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cheltenham have failed to score in 33% of games; Burton Albion in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cheltenham home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cheltenham play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cheltenham's recent matches and 51% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cheltenham vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Cheltenham's recent games and 54% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cheltenham and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Cheltenham have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cheltenham's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham and Burton Albion finished level at 0-0 at Completely-Suzuki Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cheltenham 1.51 xG and Burton Albion 1.14 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cheltenham fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Burton Albion landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cheltenham attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.06, drawn from 79/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cheltenham 46% | Draw 26% | Burton Albion 28%, with Cheltenham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cheltenham 42%, Burton Albion 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cheltenham's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cheltenham 1.10 PPG, Burton Albion 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cheltenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.