Burton Albion 1-3 Peterborough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Peterborough at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Peterborough.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Peterborough meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One (matchday 37). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Burton Albion's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Burton Albion have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Peterborough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Peterborough's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.60 for Peterborough. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Peterborough edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Burton Albion 0–4 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 81 games, 40 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 46% versus Peterborough 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 46% | Peterborough 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.689 / defence 0.925 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / defence 1.102. League average goals — home 1.331 / away 1.209. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 81 games and Peterborough's last 81.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.41 | Draw 3.56 | Peterborough 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 20% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Peterborough | Competition: League One, matchday 37 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 March 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Burton Albion 1.01 / Peterborough 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.689 / def 0.925 | Peterborough attack 1.146 / def 1.102 | league avg home 1.331 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Peterborough xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Peterborough FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Peterborough kick off?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Burton Albion 1 - 3 Peterborough.
Where is Burton Albion vs Peterborough being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Peterborough part of?
Burton Albion vs Peterborough is a League One fixture (matchday 37) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 29% chance of winning, Peterborough a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Burton Albion and Peterborough will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Burton Albion vs Peterborough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.69) and Peterborough's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Peterborough's attack (1.15x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 81 games and Peterborough's last 81 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
29%
3.41
28%
3.56
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.29
1.28
Peterborough xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
36%
2.75
Win to Nil
8%
12.29
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Peterborough Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Peterborough expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.28 for Peterborough, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Peterborough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 81 outings, Burton Albion have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 25W 20D 36L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Peterborough's form line: 42W 13D 26L from 81 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Peterborough are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Burton Albion.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Burton Albion have posted 1.40 PPG from their last 40 home games (15W 11D 14L).
On the road, Peterborough have gone 19W 5D 16L from their last 40 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Peterborough are on 1.75 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 81 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Peterborough (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Current Season
Peterborough
Current Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Peterborough Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Peterborough in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 25W 20D 36L in their last 81 games (1.17 PPG), while Peterborough have gone 42W 13D 26L in their last 81 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Peterborough away?
Peterborough's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.40 PPG; Peterborough away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Peterborough been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Peterborough in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 4-0 Burton Albion on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 1D 3L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Peterborough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
4
Draws
4
Peterborough
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Peterborough H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 1, Peterborough have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Peterborough last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Peterborough 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Peterborough?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 42%, Peterborough 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Burton Albion) and 58% (Peterborough).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Peterborough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Peterborough Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Peterborough matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 58% of Peterborough's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Peterborough matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Burton Albion's recent games and 58% of Peterborough's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Peterborough matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 68% of Peterborough's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Burton Albion.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough beat Burton Albion 1-3 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.01 xG and Peterborough 1.28 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Peterborough outscored their 1.28 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.69 / defence 0.93 against Peterborough attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 81/81 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 29% | Draw 28% | Peterborough 43%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 46%, Peterborough 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (81 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Peterborough's trading profile (81 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Peterborough arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.17. That form edge translated into the three points. Burton Albion (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Peterborough (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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