Charlton 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Charlton welcome Stevenage to The Valley. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Charlton at The Valley this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stevenage stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League One matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Stevenage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stevenage's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Charlton at 2.10 PPG versus Stevenage's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Charlton have won 0, Stevenage 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Charlton trading profile (73 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Stevenage trading profile (73 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 64% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 49% | Stevenage 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 0.84 xG and Stevenage 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.883 / defence 0.738 | Stevenage attack 0.775 / defence 0.732. League average goals — home 1.298 / away 1.185. Stevenage's defence strength of 0.732 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Charlton's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Charlton games / 73 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 36% | Stevenage 27%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 2.70 | Draw 2.78 | Stevenage 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.52. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.52 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Stevenage's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charlton at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 20% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 28%. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 50% | Stevenage 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 37% | Draw 36% | Stevenage 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 28% | xG Charlton 0.84 / Stevenage 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 0.883 / def 0.738 | Stevenage attack 0.775 / def 0.732 | league avg home 1.298 / away 1.185 • Poisson stance: Charlton (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Stevenage xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Stevenage kick off?
Charlton vs Stevenage kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Stevenage?
Charlton 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Charlton vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Stevenage part of?
Charlton vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 37% chance of winning, Stevenage a 27% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Charlton and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Stevenage?
Record (3 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 1W.
What form are Charlton and Stevenage in?
Charlton (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charlton's attack rating (0.88) and Stevenage's defence rating (0.73), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
37%
2.73
36%
2.75
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Charlton xG
Total xG
1.52
0.68
Stevenage xG
2.73
37%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.58
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.97
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
19%
5.39
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.9 | 14.9 | 5.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.5%.
How many goals are Charlton and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Charlton and 0.68 for Stevenage, a combined total of 1.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Charlton come into this having played 73 games, going 22W 28D 23L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.52 PPG from 73 outings (30W 21D 22L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Stevenage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.29 PPG, Stevenage on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Charlton's home form reads 14W 13D 8L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.34 points per game from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.15 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charlton have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Stevenage in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 73 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
Stevenage
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 28D 23L in their last 73 games (1.29 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 30W 21D 22L in their last 73 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Stevenage away?
Charlton's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.57 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Charlton or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Stevenage in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Stevenage runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton's record when hosting Stevenage specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Charlton
2
Draws
1
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Stevenage?
From 4 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, Stevenage have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Charlton 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stevenage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 66%, Stevenage 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Charlton) and 46% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 43%; Stevenage in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 66% of Charlton's recent matches and 40% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Charlton's recent games and 46% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Stevenage tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Charlton cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat Stevenage 2-0 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 0.84 xG and Stevenage 0.68 xG, a combined 1.52. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 0.88 / defence 0.74 against Stevenage attack 0.78 / defence 0.73, drawn from 74/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 37% | Draw 36% | Stevenage 27%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 49%, Stevenage 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (73 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (73 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, Stevenage 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.