Charlton 2-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Charlton at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charlton vs Peterborough encounter.

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Match Analysis

Charlton host Peterborough at The Valley in League One (matchday 16). Kick-off is Tuesday 11 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form Guide

Charlton — last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

In front of their own supporters, Charlton have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Peterborough stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Peterborough have gone 0W 1D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Charlton carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Charlton have won 0, Peterborough 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 13 Jan 2024, ended Charlton 1–2 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Charlton in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).

Peterborough in-play tendencies (last 75 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Charlton 63% and Peterborough 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 48% | Peterborough 68%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Charlton surrender their half-time lead 41% of the time, while Peterborough have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Peterborough surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Charlton recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 48% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.90 xG and Peterborough 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 0.957 / defence 0.690 | Peterborough attack 0.944 / defence 1.531. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.186. Peterborough's defence rating of 1.531 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charlton's projected output up. Charlton have a tight defence (rating 0.690), which is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Data: built from Charlton's last 75 games and Peterborough's last 75.

Result probabilities: Charlton 64% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 14%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.56 | Draw 4.61 | Peterborough 6.97. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Charlton's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Charlton 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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