Bristol Rovers 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bristol Rovers at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town meet at Memorial Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bristol Rovers's overall League One record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bristol Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bristol Rovers at Memorial Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bristol Rovers are significantly better at Memorial Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Crawley Town have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Crawley Town have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bristol Rovers's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Bristol Rovers, 0 for Crawley Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2022, ended 2–1 with Bristol Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bristol Rovers — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Crawley Town — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bristol Rovers 57% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bristol Rovers 50% | Crawley Town 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bristol Rovers 1.48 xG and Crawley Town 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bristol Rovers attack 0.904 / defence 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.603 / defence 1.182. League average goals — home 1.384 / away 1.149. Data: 60 Bristol Rovers games / 15 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 55% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 19%. Fair-value odds: Bristol Rovers 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Crawley Town 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bristol Rovers (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bristol Rovers are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bristol Rovers 30% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Memorial Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bristol Rovers 55% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 40% | xG Bristol Rovers 1.48 / Crawley Town 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Bristol Rovers attack 0.904 / def 1.068 | Crawley Town attack 0.603 / def 1.182 | league avg home 1.384 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Bristol Rovers (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Bristol Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Crawley Town xG
40%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town kick off?
Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 16 November 2024 at Memorial Stadium.
What was the final score in Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Bristol Rovers 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Memorial Stadium.
What competition is Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town part of?
Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Bristol Rovers a 55% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bristol Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town?
Record (2 meetings): Bristol Rovers 2W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 0W.
What form are Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town in?
Bristol Rovers (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bristol Rovers's attack at 0.90x the league average against Crawley Town's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.60x) against Bristol Rovers's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 60/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.4%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bristol Rovers Win
55%
1.82
26%
3.78
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Bristol Rovers xG
Total xG
2.22
0.74
Crawley Town xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
26%
3.82
4%
23.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 11.9 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 8.8 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Bristol Rovers and 0.74 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bristol Rovers's recent record stands at 21W 11D 28L from 60 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bristol Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 25W 9D 26L across 60 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Bristol Rovers against 1.40 for Crawley Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bristol Rovers have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 12W 4D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bristol Rovers are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.55 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Last 60 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bristol Rovers
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Bristol Rovers have gone 21W 11D 28L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 9D 26L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bristol Rovers at home or Crawley Town away?
Bristol Rovers's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bristol Rovers at home: 1.43 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bristol Rovers have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Crawley Town won 4-0 on 25 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bristol Rovers have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bristol Rovers
1
Draws
2
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town?
From 7 meetings on record, Bristol Rovers have won 4, Crawley Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Crawley Town 0-2 Bristol Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town?
Bristol Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bristol Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bristol Rovers 57%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bristol Rovers) and 57% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Bristol Rovers have failed to score in 27% of games; Crawley Town in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bristol Rovers home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bristol Rovers play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bristol Rovers's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bristol Rovers vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bristol Rovers's recent games and 57% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Bristol Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bristol Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bristol Rovers and Crawley Town finished level at 0-0 at Memorial Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bristol Rovers 1.48 xG and Crawley Town 0.74 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bristol Rovers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bristol Rovers attack 0.90 / defence 1.07 against Crawley Town attack 0.60 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bristol Rovers 55% | Draw 26% | Crawley Town 19%, with Bristol Rovers to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bristol Rovers 50%, Crawley Town 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bristol Rovers's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bristol Rovers 1.23 PPG, Crawley Town 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bristol Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.27 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.