Carlisle 0-2 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derby at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Carlisle face Derby.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carlisle and Derby meet at Brunton Park in League One (matchday 9). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Carlisle have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Carlisle's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Derby (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derby's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Carlisle's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) — Carlisle have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Derby in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Carlisle — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derby — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 45% versus Derby 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 38% | Derby 47%). Note also that Derby surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Carlisle recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 1.06 xG and Derby 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.853 / defence 1.047 | Derby attack 1.364 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.136. Derby have an above-average attack rating of 1.364, which lifts their away xG to 1.62. Data: built from Carlisle's last 8 games and Derby's last 53.
Result probabilities: Carlisle 25% | Draw 25% | Derby 51%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 4.04 | Draw 4.04 | Derby 1.98. Derby hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derby are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derby if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Carlisle's last 10 home games and Derby's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Carlisle 60% (last 10 home games) | Derby 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Derby | Competition: League One, matchday 9 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 25% | Draw 25% | Derby 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Carlisle 1.06 / Derby 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.853 / def 1.047 | Derby attack 1.364 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Derby (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Derby xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Carlisle vs Derby FAQs
What time does Carlisle vs Derby kick off?
Carlisle vs Derby kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Derby?
Carlisle 0 - 2 Derby.
Where is Carlisle vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Derby part of?
Carlisle vs Derby is a League One fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 25% chance of winning, Derby a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Derby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Carlisle and Derby will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Carlisle vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. Flip it around — Derby's attack (1.36x) against Carlisle's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from Carlisle's last 8 games and Derby's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.6%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derby Win
25%
4.04
25%
4.04
51%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Carlisle xG
Total xG
2.68
1.62
Derby xG
4.04
25%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.98
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
5%
20.50
18%
5.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Carlisle vs Derby Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Carlisle and 1.62 for Derby, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carlisle's recent record stands at 21W 19D 13L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 24W 14D 15L across 53 games — 1.62 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Carlisle against 1.62 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carlisle have managed 11W 10D 5L from their last 26 home games — 1.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 10W 7D 9L across their last 26 away games, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Carlisle are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.49 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Derby in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Derby
Early Season
Carlisle (Home) vs Derby (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Carlisle
Blended
Derby
Early Season
❓ Carlisle vs Derby Form FAQs
What form are Carlisle and Derby in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 21W 19D 13L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Derby have gone 24W 14D 15L in their last 53 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Derby away?
Carlisle's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.65 PPG; Derby away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Derby in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Carlisle and Derby, the earliest from September 2023. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Carlisle
0
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Carlisle vs Derby H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Derby?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Carlisle have won 0, Derby have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Derby last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Derby 2-0 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 46%, Derby 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Carlisle) and 46% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Derby in 31%; Carlisle have failed to score in 27% of games; Derby in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Carlisle vs Derby Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Carlisle and Derby matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Carlisle's recent matches and 50% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Carlisle and Derby matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Carlisle's recent games and 46% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Derby matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Carlisle's recent matches and 65% of Derby's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Derby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carlisle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derby beat Carlisle 0-2 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 9, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 1.06 xG and Derby 1.62 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carlisle fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.85 / defence 1.05 against Derby attack 1.36 / defence 1.04, drawn from 8/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 25% | Draw 25% | Derby 51%, with Derby to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 38%, Derby 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derby's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.55 PPG, Derby 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derby win broke the near-deadlock. Carlisle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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