Burton Albion 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Burton Albion face Fleetwood Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to Pirelli Stadium to face Burton Albion in League One (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Burton Albion (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Burton Albion have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Burton Albion are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town's record over their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Fleetwood Town away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Burton Albion, 1 for Fleetwood Town and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Burton Albion 3–2 Fleetwood Town — a Burton Albion win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 47%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 49% versus Fleetwood Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Fleetwood Town 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.826 / defence 1.061 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.874 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.136. Data: built from Burton Albion's last 54 games and Fleetwood Town's last 53.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.70 | Draw 3.41 | Fleetwood Town 2.97. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Burton Albion 60% (last 10 home games) | Fleetwood Town 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, matchday 9 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 23 September 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Burton Albion 1.12 / Fleetwood Town 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.826 / def 1.061 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.874 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Fleetwood Town xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town FAQs
What time does Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 23 September 2023 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town is a League One fixture (matchday 9) (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 37% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Burton Albion's attack rating (0.83) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.87x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Burton Albion's last 54 games and Fleetwood Town's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.41
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
Fleetwood Town xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
11%
9.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.05 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 13D 24L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.11 PPG from 53 outings (14W 17D 22L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.11 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 9W 8D 9L across their last 26 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 26 away games (7W 9D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.06 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
Burton Albion (Home) vs Fleetwood Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Burton Albion
Blended
Fleetwood Town
Early Season
❓ Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town Form FAQs
What form are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 games (1.15 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 14W 17D 22L in their last 53 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.35 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in League One. The most recent in our data was on 27 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fleetwood Town won Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Burton Albion
1
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Burton Albion have won 3, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 April 2024: Fleetwood Town 3-0 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 42%, Fleetwood Town 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burton Albion) and 42% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 38% of games; Fleetwood Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Burton Albion vs Fleetwood Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 58% of Fleetwood Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burton Albion's recent games and 42% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 81% of Fleetwood Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 9, as Burton Albion and Fleetwood Town drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.12 xG and Fleetwood Town 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.83 / defence 1.06 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.87 / defence 1.13, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 37% | Draw 29% | Fleetwood Town 34%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Fleetwood Town 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.15 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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