Burton Albion 0-0 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Crawley Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Crawley Town meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 0W 3D 7L from 10 games (0.30 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 1W 1D 8L at Pirelli Stadium — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Crawley Town (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 League One outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.30 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Burton Albion have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Crawley Town in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Crawley Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 50% versus Crawley Town 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 52% | Crawley Town 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.65 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.921 / defence 1.406 | Crawley Town attack 0.665 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.202. Crawley Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Burton Albion's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Burton Albion games / 13 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 50% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 26%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Crawley Town 3.85. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Burton Albion are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 70% | Crawley Town 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Crawley Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 50% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Burton Albion 1.65 / Crawley Town 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.921 / def 1.406 | Crawley Town attack 0.665 / def 1.311 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Crawley Town xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Crawley Town kick off?
Burton Albion vs Crawley Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Burton Albion 0 - 0 Crawley Town.
Where is Burton Albion vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Crawley Town part of?
Burton Albion vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 50% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Burton Albion and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Crawley Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Crawley Town in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Crawley Town (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. Flip it around — Crawley Town's attack (0.67x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 58/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
50%
2.01
24%
4.10
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.78
1.12
Crawley Town xG
2.01
50%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
20.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.12 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 58 games, going 12W 14D 32L for 0.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.41 PPG from 58 outings (25W 7D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crawley Town carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Burton Albion's home form reads 7W 5D 16L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.39 points per game from 28 outings (12W 3D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.57 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 12W 14D 32L in their last 58 games (0.86 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 25W 7D 26L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 0.93 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Burton Albion
2
Draws
0
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Crawley Town?
From 2 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 0, Crawley Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Crawley Town 1-1 Burton Albion.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 54%, Crawley Town 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Burton Albion) and 57% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games; Crawley Town in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 54% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Burton Albion's recent games and 57% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Burton Albion's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 5, as Burton Albion and Crawley Town drew 0-0 in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.65 xG and Crawley Town 1.12 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Burton Albion fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Crawley Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.41 against Crawley Town attack 0.67 / defence 1.31, drawn from 58/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 50% | Draw 24% | Crawley Town 26%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 52%, Crawley Town 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Crawley Town arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.86. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Burton Albion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.