Cambridge United 1-0 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cambridge United at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cambridge United face Burton Albion.

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Analysis

Burton Albion make the trip to Cledara Abbey Stadium to face Cambridge United in League One (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Current Form

Cambridge United's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Cambridge United at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Burton Albion (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Burton Albion away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Cambridge United 0–0 Burton Albion — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Cambridge United — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cambridge United 35% versus Burton Albion 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambridge United 37% | Burton Albion 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cambridge United 1.54 xG and Burton Albion 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambridge United attack 0.892 / defence 1.112 | Burton Albion attack 0.898 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.222. Burton Albion's defence rating of 1.313 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cambridge United's projected output up. Data: built from Cambridge United's last 57 games and Burton Albion's last 57.

Result probabilities: Cambridge United 45% | Draw 25% | Burton Albion 30%. Fair-value odds: Cambridge United 2.23 | Draw 3.99 | Burton Albion 3.33. Cambridge United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Cambridge United at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cambridge United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cambridge United's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cambridge United 50% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 60% (last 10 away games).

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