Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bolton at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bolton vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bolton and Burton Albion meet at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bolton's overall League One record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bolton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bolton have posted 2W 4D 4L at Toughsheet Community Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Burton Albion have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 0W 4D 6L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Bolton. A 1.00 PPG lead over Burton Albion (1.40 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bolton lead 2W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2024, ended 1–0 with Bolton winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bolton — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (55 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 53% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 51% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 1.89 xG and Burton Albion 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.120 / defence 1.304 | Burton Albion attack 0.917 / defence 1.272. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.252. Burton Albion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.272 — this is suppressing Bolton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Bolton games / 55 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bolton 47% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 31%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 2.13 | Draw 4.55 | Burton Albion 3.23. Bolton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.89 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bolton are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bolton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 50% | Burton Albion 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bolton vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Toughsheet Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bolton 47% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Bolton 1.89 / Burton Albion 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Bolton attack 1.120 / def 1.304 | Burton Albion attack 0.917 / def 1.272 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Bolton (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Bolton xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Burton Albion xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bolton vs Burton Albion kick off?
Bolton vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Bolton 2 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Bolton vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Toughsheet Community Stadium.
What competition is Bolton vs Burton Albion part of?
Bolton vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Bolton a 47% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 31% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bolton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Bolton and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will Bolton vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
Record (6 meetings): Bolton 2W | Draws 3 | Burton Albion 1W.
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in?
Bolton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Burton Albion (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bolton's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Burton Albion's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.89. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.92x) against Bolton's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bolton Win
47%
2.12
22%
4.50
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Bolton xG
Total xG
3.39
1.50
Burton Albion xG
2.12
47%
Home win
4.50
22%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
15%
6.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 9.6 | 7.1 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Bolton and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Bolton and 1.50 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bolton vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bolton's recent record stands at 27W 14D 14L from 55 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bolton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 12W 14D 29L across 55 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bolton by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bolton have managed 14W 7D 7L from 28 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 5W 9D 14L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bolton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bolton are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 0.89 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 55 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bolton
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bolton and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Bolton have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 12W 14D 29L in their last 55 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bolton at home or Burton Albion away?
Bolton's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bolton at home: 1.75 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bolton or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bolton have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 27 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Burton Albion won 3-0 on 11 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bolton have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bolton
3
Draws
2
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bolton and Burton Albion?
From 10 meetings on record, Bolton have won 5, Burton Albion have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bolton and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2026, when Bolton 2-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Bolton and Burton Albion?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bolton 57%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Bolton) and 54% (Burton Albion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bolton home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bolton play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Bolton's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bolton vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Bolton's matches and 54% of Burton Albion's.
Do Bolton and Burton Albion tend to score early?
Bolton have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Burton Albion in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bolton edge out Burton Albion 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bolton beat Burton Albion 2-1 at Toughsheet Community Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bolton 1.89 xG and Burton Albion 1.50 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bolton attack 1.12 / defence 1.30 against Burton Albion attack 0.92 / defence 1.27, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bolton 47% | Draw 22% | Burton Albion 31%, with Bolton to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bolton 51%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bolton's trading profile (55 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Burton Albion's trading profile (55 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.