AFC Wimbledon 0-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AFC Wimbledon at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Burton Albion at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 League One outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AFC Wimbledon have posted 6W 2D 2L at The Cherry Red Records Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Cherry Red Records Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 League One matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Burton Albion's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On current form, AFC Wimbledon have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Burton Albion 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 36% versus Burton Albion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 36% | Burton Albion 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.051 / defence 0.968 | Burton Albion attack 0.881 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.315 / away 1.086. Data: 13 AFC Wimbledon games / 58 Burton Albion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 28%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Burton Albion 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AFC Wimbledon at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AFC Wimbledon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: AFC Wimbledon 30% | Burton Albion 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG AFC Wimbledon 1.22 / Burton Albion 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 1.051 / def 0.968 | Burton Albion attack 0.881 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.315 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: AFC Wimbledon (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Burton Albion xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
AFC Wimbledon 0 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 43% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AFC Wimbledon the favourite.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
Record (2 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 2 | Burton Albion 0W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AFC Wimbledon's attack at 1.05x the league average against Burton Albion's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burton Albion's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AFC Wimbledon Win
43%
2.34
29%
3.43
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
2.14
0.93
Burton Albion xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
8%
12.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.2 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.93 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 28W 14D 16L from 58 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Burton Albion, meanwhile, have gone 14W 17D 27L across 58 games — 1.02 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AFC Wimbledon by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Burton Albion heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 16W 6D 6L from 28 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burton Albion's away record stands at 6W 10D 12L across 28 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.02 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Burton Albion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 28W 14D 16L in their last 58 games (1.69 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 14W 17D 27L in their last 58 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Burton Albion away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.93 PPG; Burton Albion away: 1.00 PPG.
Have AFC Wimbledon or Burton Albion been keeping clean sheets recently?
AFC Wimbledon have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Burton Albion in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Burton Albion go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Sep 2026, when Burton Albion won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AFC Wimbledon's record when hosting Burton Albion specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
2
Draws
3
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
From 5 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Burton Albion have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when Burton Albion 4-1 AFC Wimbledon.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Burton Albion?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 29%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (AFC Wimbledon) and 43% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Burton Albion in 36%; Burton Albion in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Burton Albion?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Burton Albion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 43% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Burton Albion defy the odds to beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat AFC Wimbledon 0-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 1.22 xG and Burton Albion 0.93 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. AFC Wimbledon fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 1.05 / defence 0.97 against Burton Albion attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 13/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 43% | Draw 29% | Burton Albion 28%, with AFC Wimbledon to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Burton Albion win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 36%, Burton Albion 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Burton Albion's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Wimbledon arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with Burton Albion winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Burton Albion (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.