West Brom 2-0 QPR – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 45% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs QPR encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Hawthorns plays host to West Brom versus QPR in Championship (matchday 13). Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
West Brom have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, West Brom have posted 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
QPR (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
QPR's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward West Brom. A 0.90 PPG lead over QPR (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for West Brom, 1 for QPR and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Apr 2023, ended West Brom 2–2 QPR — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
West Brom half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games).
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 52% versus QPR 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 41% | QPR 52%). Note also that QPR surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while West Brom recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.26 xG and QPR 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 0.926 / defence 0.843 | QPR attack 0.807 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.252. Data: built from West Brom's last 58 games and QPR's last 58.
Result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.21 | Draw 3.30 | QPR 4.08. West Brom hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Brom at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: West Brom 60% (last 10 home games) | QPR 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs QPR | Competition: Championship, matchday 13 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 October 2023 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG West Brom 1.26 / QPR 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 0.926 / def 0.843 | QPR attack 0.807 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: West Brom (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.85
QPR xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs QPR FAQs
What time does West Brom vs QPR kick off?
West Brom vs QPR kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Tuesday 24 October 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs QPR?
West Brom 2 - 0 QPR.
Where is West Brom vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs QPR part of?
West Brom vs QPR is a Championship fixture (matchday 13) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 45% chance of winning, QPR a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both West Brom and QPR will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will West Brom vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
West Brom's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against QPR's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. Flip it around — QPR's attack (0.81x) against West Brom's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 58 games and QPR's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.30
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.11
0.85
QPR xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
7%
14.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 13.0 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs QPR Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are West Brom and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for West Brom and 0.85 for QPR, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 22W 17D 19L record — D-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
QPR's form line: 15W 13D 30L from 58 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-L.
Put side by side, West Brom are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against QPR.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.76 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 9D 6L).
On the road, QPR have gone 9W 7D 13L from their last 29 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 0.91 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
QPR
Blended
West Brom (Home) vs QPR (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ West Brom vs QPR Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and QPR in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 games (1.43 PPG), while QPR have gone 15W 13D 30L in their last 58 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or QPR away?
West Brom's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.76 PPG; QPR away: 1.17 PPG.
Have West Brom or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, QPR in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between West Brom and QPR, the earliest from January 2022. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against QPR — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Brom
3
Draws
2
QPR
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs QPR H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and QPR?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 5, QPR have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and QPR last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: West Brom 1-1 QPR.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and QPR?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 41%, QPR 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (West Brom) and 52% (QPR).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; QPR in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs QPR Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and QPR matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of West Brom's recent matches and 48% of QPR's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and QPR matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of West Brom's recent games and 52% of QPR's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and QPR matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of West Brom's recent matches and 69% of QPR's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom beat QPR 2-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 13, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.26 xG and QPR 0.85 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. QPR landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 0.93 / defence 0.84 against QPR attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 45% | Draw 30% | QPR 24%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 41%, QPR 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
QPR's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, West Brom arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. West Brom (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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