West Brom 0-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates West Brom at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Brom vs Plymouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Plymouth travel to The Hawthorns to take on West Brom in Championship (matchday 12). The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
West Brom — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, West Brom have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Plymouth's form when playing away from home: 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, West Brom have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of West Brom's games and 70% of Plymouth's (from West Brom's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
West Brom in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Plymouth in-play tendencies (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 53% versus Plymouth 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Brom 42% | Plymouth 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: West Brom surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Plymouth have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.78 xG and Plymouth 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.038 / defence 0.913 | Plymouth attack 0.779 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.377 / away 1.244. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing West Brom's projected output up. Plymouth's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from West Brom's last 57 games and Plymouth's last 11.
Result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 1.75 | Draw 3.81 | Plymouth 5.96. The model has a clear lean to West Brom (57%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Brom are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Brom 60% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Plymouth | Competition: Championship, matchday 12 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Saturday 21 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG West Brom 1.78 / Plymouth 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.038 / def 0.913 | Plymouth attack 0.779 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.377 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: West Brom (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Plymouth xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Brom vs Plymouth FAQs
What time does West Brom vs Plymouth kick off?
West Brom vs Plymouth kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 21 October 2023 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Plymouth?
West Brom 0 - 0 Plymouth.
Where is West Brom vs Plymouth being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Plymouth part of?
West Brom vs Plymouth is a Championship fixture (matchday 12) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 57% chance of winning, Plymouth a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both West Brom and Plymouth will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will West Brom vs Plymouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from West Brom's attack rating (1.04) and Plymouth's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Plymouth's attack versus West Brom's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Brom's last 57 games and Plymouth's last 11 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
57%
1.75
26%
3.81
17%
5.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.67
0.89
Plymouth xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.96
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
17%
5.95
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
3%
35.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Brom vs Plymouth Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Plymouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are West Brom and Plymouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for West Brom and 0.89 for Plymouth, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Plymouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 57 outings, West Brom have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 22W 16D 19L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Plymouth's form line: 34W 10D 13L from 57 games, 1.96 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Plymouth are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Brom.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, West Brom have posted 1.79 PPG from their last 28 home games (14W 8D 6L).
On the road, Plymouth have gone 11W 9D 8L from their last 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Plymouth's recent record.
The Goals Picture
West Brom are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Plymouth are on 1.75 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Plymouth in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
West Brom (Home) vs Plymouth (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Brom
Blended
Plymouth
Blended
❓ West Brom vs Plymouth Form FAQs
What form are West Brom and Plymouth in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 22W 16D 19L in their last 57 games (1.44 PPG), while Plymouth have gone 34W 10D 13L in their last 57 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Plymouth away?
West Brom's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.79 PPG; Plymouth away: 1.50 PPG.
Have West Brom or Plymouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Plymouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Feb 2024, when West Brom won Plymouth 0-3 West Brom.
West Brom's record when hosting Plymouth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
West Brom
1
Draws
1
Plymouth
Recent Meetings
❓ West Brom vs Plymouth H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Plymouth?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, West Brom have won 2, Plymouth have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did West Brom and Plymouth last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Plymouth 2-1 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between West Brom and Plymouth?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 43%, Plymouth 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (West Brom) and 61% (Plymouth).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Plymouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Brom vs Plymouth Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Brom and Plymouth matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of West Brom's recent matches and 64% of Plymouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Brom and Plymouth matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of West Brom's recent games and 61% of Plymouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Plymouth matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of West Brom's recent matches and 71% of Plymouth's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at West Brom's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Brom and Plymouth finished level at 0-0 at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 12, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.78 xG and Plymouth 0.89 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. West Brom fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Plymouth landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.04 / defence 0.91 against Plymouth attack 0.78 / defence 1.25, drawn from 57/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 57% | Draw 26% | Plymouth 17%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 42%, Plymouth 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Plymouth's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.93 average — tighter than their form line. Plymouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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