West Brom 1-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Brom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Brom vs Burnley fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Burnley make the trip to The Hawthorns to face West Brom in Championship, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Friday 2 September 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
West Brom's overall Championship record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. West Brom have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Brom have posted 5W 4D 1L at The Hawthorns — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Hawthorns.
Burnley have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Burnley have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Burnley's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
West Brom — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Burnley — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Brom 36% versus Burnley 49%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (West Brom 38% | Burnley 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Brom 1.46 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Brom attack 1.159 / defence 0.991 | Burnley attack 1.204 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.032. Burnley have an above-average attack strength of 1.204 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 West Brom games / 7 Burnley games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Brom 42% | Draw 26% | Burnley 32%. Fair-value odds: West Brom 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Burnley 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates West Brom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on West Brom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: West Brom 50% | Burnley 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Brom vs Burnley | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: The Hawthorns • Kick-off: Friday 2 Sep 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Brom 42% | Draw 26% | Burnley 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG West Brom 1.46 / Burnley 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: West Brom attack 1.159 / def 0.991 | Burnley attack 1.204 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: West Brom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
West Brom xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Burnley xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Brom vs Burnley kick off?
West Brom vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 2 September 2022 at The Hawthorns.
What was the final score in West Brom vs Burnley?
West Brom 1 - 1 Burnley.
Where is West Brom vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at The Hawthorns.
What competition is West Brom vs Burnley part of?
West Brom vs Burnley is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win West Brom vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives West Brom a 42% chance of winning, Burnley a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making West Brom the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Brom vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both West Brom and Burnley will score (BTTS).
Will West Brom vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are West Brom and Burnley in?
West Brom (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Burnley (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates West Brom's attack at 1.16x the league average against Burnley's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (1.20x) against West Brom's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 53/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Brom Win
42%
2.36
26%
3.90
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
West Brom xG
Total xG
2.69
1.23
Burnley xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
12%
8.07
7%
13.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Brom vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are West Brom and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for West Brom and 1.23 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for West Brom vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
West Brom's recent record stands at 15W 14D 16L from 45 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for West Brom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 10W 17D 18L across 45 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Burnley, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for West Brom against 1.04 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, West Brom have managed 11W 8D 3L from 22 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.31 PPG overall — West Brom are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Burnley's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Brom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
West Brom are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.04 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Brom
Early Season
Burnley
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Brom and Burnley in coming into this match?
West Brom have gone 15W 14D 16L in their last 45 games (1.31 PPG), while Burnley have gone 10W 17D 18L in their last 45 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Brom at home or Burnley away?
West Brom's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Brom at home: 1.86 PPG; Burnley away: 0.91 PPG.
Have West Brom or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Brom have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Burnley in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Brom have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
West Brom
3
Draws
1
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Brom and Burnley?
From 5 meetings on record, West Brom have won 1, Burnley have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Brom and Burnley last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when West Brom 3-1 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
West Brom see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Brom 36%, Burnley 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (West Brom) and 36% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: West Brom keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; West Brom have failed to score in 27% of games; Burnley in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Brom home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Brom play Burnley?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of West Brom's recent matches and 50% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Brom vs Burnley usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of West Brom's recent games and 36% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Brom and Burnley tend to score early?
West Brom have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Burnley in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
West Brom and Burnley share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Hawthorns, Regular Season - 8, as West Brom and Burnley drew 1-1 in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Brom 1.46 xG and Burnley 1.23 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Brom attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Burnley attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 53/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Brom 42% | Draw 26% | Burnley 32%, with West Brom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Brom 38%, Burnley 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Brom's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Burnley's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Brom 1.31 PPG, Burnley 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.