Watford 1-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Leicester (55%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Watford face Leicester.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vicarage Road plays host to Watford versus Leicester in Championship (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Current Form
Watford's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Watford have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Leicester have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Leicester have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Leicester arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Watford's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Watford's games and 70% of Leicester's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to Leicester, who have 3 wins from 3 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Watford 0–2 Leicester — a Leicester win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Leicester have won 3 of 3 H2H matches, and at 4.7 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Watford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Leicester goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Watford 46% versus Leicester 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Watford 46% | Leicester 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Watford 1.29 xG and Leicester 2.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Watford attack 1.000 / defence 1.173 | Leicester attack 1.457 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.197. Leicester have an above-average attack rating of 1.457, which lifts their away xG to 2.05. Data: built from Watford's last 76 games and Leicester's last 30.
Result probabilities: Watford 24% | Draw 21% | Leicester 55%. Fair-value odds: Watford 4.21 | Draw 4.68 | Leicester 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Leicester (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.29 / 2.05) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Leicester at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.34 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Watford's last 10 home games and Leicester's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Watford 70% (last 10 home games) | Leicester 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Watford vs Leicester | Competition: Championship, matchday 31 | Venue: Vicarage Road • Kick-off: Saturday 10 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Watford 24% | Draw 21% | Leicester 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% (Under 35%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Watford 1.29 / Leicester 2.05 • Poisson strength factors: Watford attack 1.000 / def 1.173 | Leicester attack 1.457 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Leicester (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Watford xG
Expected Goals
2.05
Leicester xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Watford vs Leicester FAQs
What time does Watford vs Leicester kick off?
Watford vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Vicarage Road.
What was the final score in Watford vs Leicester?
Watford 1 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Watford vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Vicarage Road.
What competition is Watford vs Leicester part of?
Watford vs Leicester is a Championship fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Watford vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Watford a 24% chance of winning, Leicester a 55% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Leicester the favourite.
Will both teams score in Watford vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Watford and Leicester will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Watford vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Watford's attack at 1.00x the league average against Leicester's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (1.46x) against Watford's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 2.05.
These ratings are built from Watford's last 76 games and Leicester's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Leicester Win
24%
4.21
21%
4.68
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Watford xG
Total xG
3.34
2.05
Leicester xG
4.21
24%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
13%
7.74
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
3%
32.58
15%
6.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Watford vs Leicester Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Watford vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Watford and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Watford and 2.05 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Watford vs Leicester?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Watford's recent record stands at 23W 22D 23L from 68 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Leicester, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 26L across 68 games — 1.56 PPG, with W-L-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Watford against 1.56 for Leicester. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Watford have managed 13W 11D 10L from their last 34 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Leicester's away record stands at 15W 5D 14L across their last 34 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Watford are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.69 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Watford
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
Watford (Home) vs Leicester (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Watford
Current Season
Leicester
Current Season
❓ Watford vs Leicester Form FAQs
What form are Watford and Leicester in coming into this match?
Watford have gone 23W 22D 23L in their last 68 games (1.34 PPG), while Leicester have gone 32W 10D 26L in their last 68 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Watford at home or Leicester away?
Watford's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Watford at home: 1.47 PPG; Leicester away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Watford or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Watford have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Leicester in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Watford and Leicester, the earliest from November 2021. They cover more than one competition — Premier League, Championship. The most recent was on 21 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leicester won Watford 1-5 Leicester on 15 May 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Watford have gone 0W 1D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Watford
1
Draws
4
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Watford vs Leicester H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Watford and Leicester?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Watford have won 1, Leicester have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Watford and Leicester last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 21 March 2026: Watford 0-0 Leicester.
Who has won more matches between Watford and Leicester?
Leicester have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Watford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Leicester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Watford 50%, Leicester 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Watford) and 62% (Leicester).
On the defensive side: Watford keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Watford home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Watford vs Leicester Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Watford and Leicester matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Watford's games and 65% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Watford and Leicester matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Watford's recent games and 62% of Leicester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Watford and Leicester matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Watford's recent matches and 79% of Leicester's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Leicester edge out Watford 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leicester beat Watford 1-2 at Vicarage Road, Regular Season - 31, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Watford 1.29 xG and Leicester 2.05 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Watford attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Leicester attack 1.46 / defence 0.92, drawn from 76/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Watford 24% | Draw 21% | Leicester 55%, with Leicester to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Watford 46%, Leicester 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Watford's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Leicester's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Watford 1.34 PPG, Leicester 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Leicester win broke the near-deadlock. Watford (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Championship fixtures — matchday 31
All Championship fixtures →
More UK football predictions →