Ipswich 2-2 West Brom – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Ipswich at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Ipswich face West Brom.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Ipswich welcome West Brom to Portman Road in Championship (matchday 31). Kick-off is Saturday 10 February 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Ipswich have gone 3W 5D 2L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Ipswich have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Ipswich are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

West Brom — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, West Brom have gone 4W 0D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Ipswich) versus 1.60 (West Brom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Ipswich have won 0, West Brom 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Ipswich 0–2 West Brom — a West Brom win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ipswich in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

West Brom in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ipswich 52% versus West Brom 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ipswich 59% | West Brom 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ipswich 1.65 xG and West Brom 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ipswich attack 1.284 / defence 1.112 | West Brom attack 0.869 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.192. Ipswich carry an above-average attack rating of 1.284 — their 1.65 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Ipswich's last 29 games and West Brom's last 75.

Result probabilities: Ipswich 49% | Draw 25% | West Brom 27%. Fair-value odds: Ipswich 2.05 | Draw 4.07 | West Brom 3.76. Ipswich hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Ipswich as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ipswich offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Ipswich's last 10 home games and West Brom's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ipswich 80% (last 10 home games) | West Brom 30% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights