Swansea 0-0 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Swansea at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Swansea vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Swansea host Stoke City at Swansea.com Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 5 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Swansea stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Championship matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Swansea.com Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Swansea.com Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Swansea are significantly better at Swansea.com Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Stoke City have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Stoke City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stoke City's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Swansea at 1.20 PPG versus Stoke City's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Swansea's 30% rate and Stoke City's 20% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Swansea, 3 for Stoke City and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Swansea winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Swansea in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Stoke City in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Swansea 56% versus Stoke City 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Swansea 52% | Stoke City 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Swansea 1.29 xG and Stoke City 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Swansea attack 0.894 / defence 0.883 | Stoke City attack 0.755 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.463 / away 1.001. Data: 54 Swansea games / 54 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 19%. Fair-value odds: Swansea 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Stoke City 5.26. Swansea hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Stoke City's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Swansea are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Swansea offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Swansea 30% | Stoke City 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Swansea vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Swansea.com Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Swansea 51% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 35% | xG Swansea 1.29 / Stoke City 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Swansea attack 0.894 / def 0.883 | Stoke City attack 0.755 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.463 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Swansea (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Swansea xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Stoke City xG
35%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Swansea vs Stoke City kick off?
Swansea vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 October 2024 at Swansea.com Stadium.
What was the final score in Swansea vs Stoke City?
Swansea 0 - 0 Stoke City.
Where is Swansea vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Swansea.com Stadium.
What competition is Swansea vs Stoke City part of?
Swansea vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Swansea a 51% chance of winning, Stoke City a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Swansea and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Swansea vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Stoke City?
Record (6 meetings): Swansea 1W | Draws 2 | Stoke City 3W.
What form are Swansea and Stoke City in?
Swansea (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Stoke City (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Swansea's attack rating (0.89) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Swansea's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.7%), 1-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
51%
1.94
29%
3.40
19%
5.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Swansea xG
Total xG
1.96
0.67
Stoke City xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
5.23
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.83
65%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
26%
3.79
5%
19.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 9.4 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Swansea vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Swansea and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Swansea and 0.67 for Stoke City, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Swansea vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Swansea have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 18W 14D 22L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Stoke City's form line: 18W 11D 25L from 54 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Stoke City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Swansea on 1.26 PPG, Stoke City on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Swansea have posted 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L).
On the road, Stoke City have gone 8W 5D 14L from 27 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Swansea are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.09 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Swansea
Blended
Stoke City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Swansea and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Swansea have gone 18W 14D 22L in their last 54 games (1.26 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 18W 11D 25L in their last 54 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Swansea at home or Stoke City away?
Swansea's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Swansea at home: 1.37 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2022, when Stoke City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Swansea's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Swansea
3
Draws
5
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Swansea and Stoke City?
From 10 meetings on record, Swansea have won 2, Stoke City have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Swansea and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Swansea 2-0 Stoke City.
Who has won more matches between Swansea and Stoke City?
Stoke City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Swansea 52%, Stoke City 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Swansea) and 41% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Swansea home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Swansea play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Swansea's recent matches and 44% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Swansea vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Swansea's recent games and 41% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Swansea and Stoke City tend to score early?
Swansea have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Swansea's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Swansea and Stoke City finished level at 0-0 at Swansea.com Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Swansea 1.29 xG and Stoke City 0.67 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Swansea fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Swansea attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against Stoke City attack 0.76 / defence 0.99, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Swansea 51% | Draw 29% | Stoke City 19%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Swansea 52%, Stoke City 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Swansea's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Stoke City's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Swansea 1.26 PPG, Stoke City 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Swansea (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Stoke City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.