Sunderland 3-1 Stoke City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stoke City at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Stoke City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Stoke City travel to Stadium of Light to take on Sunderland. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadium of Light, Sunderland have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stoke City stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stoke City away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sunderland 1.40 PPG, Stoke City 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sunderland, 2 for Stoke City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 1–2 with Stoke City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sunderland trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Stoke City trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 54% versus Stoke City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 54% | Stoke City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.941 / defence 1.000 | Stoke City attack 1.028 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.187. Data: 74 Sunderland games / 74 Stoke City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Stoke City 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sunderland 40% | Stoke City 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Stoke City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Sunderland 1.21 / Stoke City 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.941 / def 1.000 | Stoke City attack 1.028 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.187 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Stoke City xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Stoke City kick off?
Sunderland vs Stoke City kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Sunderland 3 - 1 Stoke City.
Where is Sunderland vs Stoke City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Stoke City part of?
Sunderland vs Stoke City is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 36% chance of winning, Stoke City a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sunderland and Stoke City will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Stoke City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Stoke City?
Record (3 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 0 | Stoke City 2W.
What form are Sunderland and Stoke City in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Stoke City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sunderland's attack rating (0.94) and Stoke City's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stoke City's attack versus Sunderland's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stoke City Win
36%
2.80
28%
3.57
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.43
1.22
Stoke City xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.50
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Stoke City expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.22 for Stoke City, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Stoke City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sunderland come into this having played 74 games, going 30W 18D 26L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Stoke City sit at 1.15 PPG from 74 outings (22W 19D 33L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sunderland on 1.46 PPG, Stoke City on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sunderland's home form reads 16W 8D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.51 PPG return.
Away from home, Stoke City have taken 1.24 points per game from 37 outings (12W 10D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Sunderland are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Stoke City are on 1.11 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Current Season
Stoke City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Stoke City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 30W 18D 26L in their last 74 games (1.46 PPG), while Stoke City have gone 22W 19D 33L in their last 74 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Stoke City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.51 PPG; Stoke City away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sunderland and Stoke City runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Mar 2023, when Stoke City won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sunderland's record when hosting Stoke City specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Sunderland
0
Draws
3
Stoke City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Stoke City?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 3, Stoke City have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Stoke City last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2024, when Stoke City 1-0 Sunderland.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Stoke City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 57%, Stoke City 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Sunderland) and 40% (Stoke City).
On the defensive side: Stoke City in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Stoke City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Stoke City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Sunderland's recent matches and 49% of Stoke City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sunderland vs Stoke City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Sunderland's recent games and 40% of Stoke City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Stoke City tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Stoke City in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Stoke City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Stoke City 3-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 29, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.21 xG and Stoke City 1.22 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against Stoke City attack 1.03 / defence 0.91, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 36% | Draw 28% | Stoke City 36%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 54%, Stoke City 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Stoke City's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Stoke City 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.51 average — above their attacking norm. Stoke City (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.