Sunderland 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sunderland vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadium of Light plays host to Sunderland versus Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Friday 19 January 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sunderland's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sunderland, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sunderland at Stadium of Light this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Hull City (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hull City's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sunderland 1W, Hull City 0W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Sunderland winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 55% versus Hull City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 55% | Hull City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.93 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 1.041 / defence 1.018 | Hull City attack 1.095 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.193. Hull City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Sunderland's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Sunderland games / 73 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 22% | Hull City 26%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | Hull City 3.85. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.93 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sunderland as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sunderland 40% | Hull City 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Friday 19 Jan 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 51% | Draw 22% | Hull City 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Sunderland 1.93 / Hull City 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 1.041 / def 1.018 | Hull City attack 1.095 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Hull City xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sunderland vs Hull City kick off?
Sunderland vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 19 January 2024 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Sunderland 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Sunderland vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Hull City part of?
Sunderland vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 51% chance of winning, Hull City a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sunderland and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Sunderland vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
Record (3 meetings): Sunderland 1W | Draws 2 | Hull City 0W.
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in?
Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Hull City (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sunderland's attack at 1.04x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.09x) against Sunderland's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
51%
1.95
22%
4.51
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Sunderland xG
Total xG
3.25
1.33
Hull City xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
15%
6.86
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
4%
25.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Sunderland and 1.33 for Hull City, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sunderland's recent record stands at 30W 18D 25L from 73 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sunderland is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 26L across 73 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Sunderland against 1.33 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sunderland have managed 16W 8D 12L from 36 games — 1.56 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 10W 12D 14L across 36 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.26 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sunderland and Hull City in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 30W 18D 25L in their last 73 games (1.48 PPG), while Hull City have gone 25W 22D 26L in their last 73 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Hull City away?
Sunderland's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.56 PPG; Hull City away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Hull City in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Hull City?
From 6 meetings on record, Sunderland have won 2, Hull City have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Sunderland 0-1 Hull City.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 58%, Hull City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Sunderland) and 56% (Hull City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hull City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sunderland play Hull City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Sunderland's games and 58% of Hull City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sunderland vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Sunderland's matches and 56% of Hull City's.
Do Sunderland and Hull City tend to score early?
Sunderland have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Hull City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Sunderland 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 28, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.93 xG and Hull City 1.33 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Hull City attack 1.09 / defence 1.30, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 51% | Draw 22% | Hull City 26%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Hull City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 55%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Hull City's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.48 PPG, Hull City 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.