QPR 1-4 Middlesbrough – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this QPR vs Middlesbrough fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
MATRADE Loftus Road plays host to QPR versus Middlesbrough in Championship, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Tuesday 5 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
QPR's overall Championship record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR at MATRADE Loftus Road this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Middlesbrough (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Middlesbrough, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Championship this season, Middlesbrough have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Middlesbrough are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — QPR have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Middlesbrough in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — QPR lead 3W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with Middlesbrough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
QPR half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Middlesbrough 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 44% | Middlesbrough 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 0.98 xG and Middlesbrough 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 0.772 / defence 1.204 | Middlesbrough attack 1.235 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.008. QPR's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 0.98 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Middlesbrough have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 QPR games / 59 Middlesbrough games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 23% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 47%. Fair-value odds: QPR 4.35 | Draw 3.33 | Middlesbrough 2.13. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Middlesbrough 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Middlesbrough | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 23% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG QPR 0.98 / Middlesbrough 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 0.772 / def 1.204 | Middlesbrough attack 1.235 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Middlesbrough xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Middlesbrough kick off?
QPR vs Middlesbrough kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 5 November 2024 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
QPR 1 - 4 Middlesbrough.
Where is QPR vs Middlesbrough being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Middlesbrough part of?
QPR vs Middlesbrough is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 23% chance of winning, Middlesbrough a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Middlesbrough will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Middlesbrough have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Middlesbrough?
Record (6 meetings): QPR 3W | Draws 1 | Middlesbrough 2W.
What form are QPR and Middlesbrough in?
QPR (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Middlesbrough (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
QPR's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Middlesbrough's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.98. Flip it around — Middlesbrough's attack (1.24x) against QPR's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
23%
4.42
30%
3.31
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
QPR xG
Total xG
2.48
1.50
Middlesbrough xG
4.42
23%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
22%
4.47
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
18%
5.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.6 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are QPR and Middlesbrough expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for QPR and 1.50 for Middlesbrough, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Middlesbrough?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, QPR have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 16W 18D 25L record — L-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Middlesbrough's form line: 25W 12D 22L from 59 games, 1.47 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Middlesbrough is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for QPR against 1.47 for Middlesbrough. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.07 PPG from 29 outings (7W 10D 12L).
On the road, Middlesbrough have gone 12W 6D 11L from 29 away games — 1.45 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
QPR are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Middlesbrough are on 1.44 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Blended
Middlesbrough
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Middlesbrough in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 games (1.12 PPG), while Middlesbrough have gone 25W 12D 22L in their last 59 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Middlesbrough away?
Middlesbrough's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.07 PPG; Middlesbrough away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Middlesbrough go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won 0-4 on 8 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, QPR have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Middlesbrough — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
QPR
1
Draws
6
Middlesbrough
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Middlesbrough?
From 10 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Middlesbrough have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Middlesbrough last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when QPR 0-4 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Middlesbrough?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Middlesbrough 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (QPR) and 62% (Middlesbrough). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Middlesbrough away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Middlesbrough?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of QPR's games and 66% of Middlesbrough's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Middlesbrough usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of QPR's matches and 62% of Middlesbrough's.
Do QPR and Middlesbrough tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Middlesbrough in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Middlesbrough run riot with a 1-4 hammering of QPR.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Middlesbrough beat QPR 1-4 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 14, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 0.98 xG and Middlesbrough 1.50 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Middlesbrough outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 0.77 / defence 1.20 against Middlesbrough attack 1.24 / defence 0.93, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 23% | Draw 30% | Middlesbrough 47%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 44%, Middlesbrough 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Middlesbrough's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.12 PPG, Middlesbrough 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Middlesbrough win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.