QPR 4-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Derby encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 33 as QPR welcome Derby to MATRADE Loftus Road. Kick-off is set for Friday 14 February 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
QPR — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, QPR have posted 6W 2D 2L at MATRADE Loftus Road — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Championship games this season, Derby have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Derby's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
QPR carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Derby in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for QPR, 1 for Derby and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Derby winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
QPR in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Derby in-play and half-time data (78 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 51% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 45% | Derby 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 1.63 xG and Derby 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.031 / defence 1.142 | Derby attack 0.842 / defence 1.160. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.040. Data: 78 QPR games / 32 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 25% | Derby 23%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Derby 4.35. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, QPR are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.63 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Derby 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 52% | Draw 25% | Derby 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG QPR 1.63 / Derby 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.031 / def 1.142 | Derby attack 0.842 / def 1.160 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: QPR (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Derby xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Derby kick off?
QPR vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Derby?
QPR 4 - 0 Derby.
Where is QPR vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Derby part of?
QPR vs Derby is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 52% chance of winning, Derby a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both QPR and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
Record (3 meetings): QPR 2W | Draws 0 | Derby 1W.
What form are QPR and Derby in?
QPR (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Derby (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
QPR's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Derby's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 78/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
52%
1.92
25%
4.04
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
QPR xG
Total xG
2.63
1.00
Derby xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
5%
21.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are QPR and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for QPR and 1.00 for Derby, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 78 outings, QPR have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 25W 22D 31L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Derby's form line: 35W 16D 27L from 78 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.24 PPG, Derby on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L).
On the road, Derby have gone 14W 9D 16L from 39 away games — 1.31 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
QPR are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.42 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 78 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Derby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Derby in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 25W 22D 31L in their last 78 games (1.24 PPG), while Derby have gone 35W 16D 27L in their last 78 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Derby away?
Derby's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.28 PPG; Derby away: 1.31 PPG.
Have QPR or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
QPR have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Derby in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between QPR and Derby runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Derby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Feb 2025, when QPR won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Derby specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
QPR
0
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, QPR have won 3, Derby have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when QPR 2-3 Derby.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Derby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (QPR) and 49% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Derby in 31%; Derby in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Derby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of QPR's games and 51% of Derby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of QPR's recent games and 49% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do QPR and Derby tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derby in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant QPR run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Derby.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
QPR beat Derby 4-0 at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 33, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 1.63 xG and Derby 1.00 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. QPR beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Derby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Derby attack 0.84 / defence 1.16, drawn from 78/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 52% | Draw 25% | Derby 23%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 45%, Derby 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (78 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Derby's trading profile (78 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.24 PPG, Derby 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the QPR win broke the near-deadlock. QPR (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.