QPR 0-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates QPR at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this QPR vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 40 sees Cardiff travel to MATRADE Loftus Road to take on QPR. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Championship matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at MATRADE Loftus Road, QPR have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — QPR are significantly better at MATRADE Loftus Road than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Cardiff have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Cardiff's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (QPR) versus 0.90 (Cardiff). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. QPR register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cardiff in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for QPR, 2 for Cardiff and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2024, ended 2–0 with QPR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
QPR in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cardiff in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — QPR 53% versus Cardiff 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (QPR 48% | Cardiff 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects QPR 2.11 xG and Cardiff 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: QPR attack 1.184 / defence 1.157 | Cardiff attack 1.076 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.016. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing QPR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 85 QPR games / 85 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: QPR 57% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 22%. Fair-value odds: QPR 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Cardiff 4.55. The model has a clear lean to QPR (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is QPR at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: QPR 60% | Cardiff 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: QPR vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: MATRADE Loftus Road • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: QPR 57% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG QPR 2.11 / Cardiff 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: QPR attack 1.184 / def 1.157 | Cardiff attack 1.076 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: QPR (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
QPR xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Cardiff xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does QPR vs Cardiff kick off?
QPR vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What was the final score in QPR vs Cardiff?
QPR 0 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is QPR vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at MATRADE Loftus Road.
What competition is QPR vs Cardiff part of?
QPR vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win QPR vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives QPR a 57% chance of winning, Cardiff a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in QPR vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both QPR and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will QPR vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
Record (7 meetings): QPR 4W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 2W.
What form are QPR and Cardiff in?
QPR (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Cardiff (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates QPR's attack at 1.18x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.11 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus QPR's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 85/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
57%
1.76
21%
4.80
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
QPR xG
Total xG
3.37
1.26
Cardiff xG
1.76
57%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
12%
8.22
Win to Nil
16%
6.24
3%
36.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for QPR vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are QPR and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for QPR and 1.26 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for QPR vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 85 outings, QPR have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 26W 23D 36L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Cardiff's form line: 28W 18D 39L from 85 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: QPR on 1.19 PPG, Cardiff on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, QPR have posted 1.29 PPG from 42 outings (14W 12D 16L).
On the road, Cardiff have gone 11W 11D 20L from 42 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
QPR are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.13 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 85 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
QPR
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are QPR and Cardiff in coming into this match?
QPR have gone 26W 23D 36L in their last 85 games (1.19 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 28W 18D 39L in their last 85 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — QPR at home or Cardiff away?
QPR's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — QPR at home: 1.29 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 2 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2022, when QPR won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
QPR's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
QPR
2
Draws
2
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between QPR and Cardiff?
From 9 meetings on record, QPR have won 5, Cardiff have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did QPR and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 2 September 2026, when QPR 2-1 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between QPR and Cardiff?
QPR have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — QPR 62%, Cardiff 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (QPR) and 57% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cardiff in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = QPR home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when QPR play Cardiff?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of QPR's games and 60% of Cardiff's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is QPR vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of QPR's matches and 57% of Cardiff's.
Do QPR and Cardiff tend to score early?
QPR have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at QPR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at MATRADE Loftus Road, Regular Season - 40, as QPR and Cardiff drew 0-0 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting QPR 2.11 xG and Cardiff 1.26 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. QPR fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Cardiff landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of QPR attack 1.18 / defence 1.16 against Cardiff attack 1.08 / defence 1.35, drawn from 85/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it QPR 57% | Draw 21% | Cardiff 22%, with QPR to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (QPR 48%, Cardiff 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
QPR's trading profile (85 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cardiff's trading profile (85 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — QPR 1.19 PPG, Cardiff 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. QPR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.