Preston 1-1 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Preston vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Deepdale plays host to Preston versus Derby in Championship, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Preston (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston at Deepdale this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Deepdale. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Derby's overall Championship record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Derby's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Preston, 1.00 for Derby — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Preston, 1 for Derby and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Derby winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Preston goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Derby goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Preston 49% versus Derby 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preston 57% | Derby 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preston 1.32 xG and Derby 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preston attack 0.881 / defence 0.957 | Derby attack 0.923 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 1.007. Data: 61 Preston games / 15 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preston 46% | Draw 30% | Derby 24%. Fair-value odds: Preston 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Derby 4.17. Preston hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Preston at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Preston 20% | Derby 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preston vs Derby | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Deepdale • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preston 46% | Draw 30% | Derby 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Preston 1.32 / Derby 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Preston attack 0.881 / def 0.957 | Derby attack 0.923 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.321 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Preston (46%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Preston xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Derby xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preston vs Derby kick off?
Preston vs Derby kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Deepdale.
What was the final score in Preston vs Derby?
Preston 1 - 1 Derby.
Where is Preston vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Deepdale.
What competition is Preston vs Derby part of?
Preston vs Derby is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Preston vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Preston a 46% chance of winning, Derby a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preston vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Preston and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Preston vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
Record (2 meetings): Preston 0W | Draws 1 | Derby 1W.
What form are Preston and Derby in?
Preston (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Derby (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about Preston vs Derby?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Preston's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Derby's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.92x) against Preston's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 61/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
46%
2.19
30%
3.29
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Preston xG
Total xG
2.21
0.89
Derby xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
6%
15.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.9 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preston vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Preston and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Preston and 0.89 for Derby, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Preston vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Preston have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 15D 25L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby's form line: 33W 12D 16L from 61 games, 1.82 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-D. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Derby are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Preston.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Preston have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Derby have gone 14W 6D 11L from 31 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Preston are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.59 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Derby in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preston
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preston and Derby in coming into this match?
Preston have gone 21W 15D 25L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Derby have gone 33W 12D 16L in their last 61 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preston at home or Derby away?
Preston's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preston at home: 1.58 PPG; Derby away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Preston or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Preston have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Derby in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Preston have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Preston
2
Draws
3
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preston and Derby?
From 6 meetings on record, Preston have won 1, Derby have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Preston and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Preston 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Preston and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Preston are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preston 55%, Derby 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Preston) and 52% (Derby). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Derby in 36%; Preston have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preston home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preston play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Preston's recent matches and 48% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Preston vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Preston's matches and 52% of Derby's.
Do Preston and Derby tend to score early?
Preston have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Derby in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Preston and Derby share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Deepdale, Regular Season - 16, as Preston and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preston 1.32 xG and Derby 0.89 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preston attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against Derby attack 0.92 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preston 46% | Draw 30% | Derby 24%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preston 57%, Derby 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preston's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Derby's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derby arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.28. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.