Portsmouth 1-3 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sunderland at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Portsmouth host Sunderland at Fratton Park in Championship, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 August 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Portsmouth stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Championship matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Portsmouth have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, Sunderland have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Sunderland have played only a handful of Championship games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Portsmouth at 1.70 PPG versus Sunderland's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Portsmouth, 1 for Sunderland and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2022, ended 0–1 with Sunderland winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Portsmouth in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Sunderland in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 55% versus Sunderland 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 57% | Sunderland 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 0.81 xG and Sunderland 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 0.698 / defence 1.027 | Sunderland attack 0.989 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.174. Portsmouth's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Portsmouth games / 49 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Sunderland 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sunderland are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sunderland offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. This conflicts with form data: Portsmouth 90% | Sunderland 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Sunderland | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Aug 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Portsmouth 0.81 / Sunderland 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 0.698 / def 1.027 | Sunderland attack 0.989 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Sunderland xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Sunderland kick off?
Portsmouth vs Sunderland kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 August 2024 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Sunderland?
Portsmouth 1 - 3 Sunderland.
Where is Portsmouth vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Sunderland part of?
Portsmouth vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 25% chance of winning, Sunderland a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Portsmouth and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Portsmouth 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Portsmouth and Sunderland in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (0.70) and Sunderland's defence rating (0.81), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
25%
4.08
31%
3.22
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.00
1.19
Sunderland xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
7%
13.44
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 16.1 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.19 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 28W 16D 5L from 49 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 19W 8D 22L across 49 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Portsmouth by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sunderland heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 15W 6D 3L from 24 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Portsmouth are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.20 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 28W 16D 5L in their last 49 games (2.04 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 19W 8D 22L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Sunderland away?
Portsmouth's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 2.12 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sunderland in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sunderland go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Oct 2021, when Portsmouth won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Sunderland specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Portsmouth
0
Draws
3
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Sunderland?
From 4 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 1, Sunderland have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 5 January 2025, when Sunderland 1-0 Portsmouth.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 67%, Sunderland 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Portsmouth) and 33% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Sunderland in 33%; Sunderland in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 42% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Portsmouth's recent games and 33% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Sunderland tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sunderland cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Portsmouth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Portsmouth 1-3 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 4, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 0.81 xG and Sunderland 1.19 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Sunderland attack 0.99 / defence 0.81, drawn from 3/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 25% | Draw 31% | Sunderland 44%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 57%, Sunderland 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Sunderland winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Portsmouth (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.