Nottingham Forest 3-0 Preston – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Preston at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Preston fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The City Ground plays host to Nottingham Forest versus Preston in Championship, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 6 November 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nottingham Forest have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 5L across 8 games at The City Ground this term (0.62 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.62 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The City Ground this season.
Preston (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Championship outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Preston, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Preston's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 4L across 8 road games this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Nottingham Forest, 1.40 for Preston — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Preston half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nottingham Forest 69% and Preston 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 56% | Preston 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.02 xG and Preston 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.780 / defence 1.428 | Preston attack 0.780 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.065 / away 1.140. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Preston bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Nottingham Forest games / 16 Preston games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 29% | Preston 42%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.45 | Draw 3.45 | Preston 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Preston are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Preston if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 75% | Preston 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Preston | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 29% | Preston 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.02 / Preston 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.780 / def 1.428 | Preston attack 0.780 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.065 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Preston (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Preston xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Preston kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Preston kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Preston?
Nottingham Forest 3 - 0 Preston.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Preston being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Preston part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Preston is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Preston?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 29% chance of winning, Preston a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Preston the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Preston?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Preston will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Preston have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Preston?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Preston in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Preston (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Preston's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Preston's attack (0.78x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Preston Win
29%
3.42
29%
3.44
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.29
1.27
Preston xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
8%
12.18
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Preston?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Preston expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.27 for Preston, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Preston?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 16 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 5W 4D 7L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Preston's form line: 5W 6D 5L from 16 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-W. The sample for Preston is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Nottingham Forest against 1.31 for Preston. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 0.62 PPG from 8 outings (1W 2D 5L). That actually lags their 1.19 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Preston have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Preston's season.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Preston are on 1.12 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nottingham Forest have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Preston
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Preston in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Preston have gone 5W 6D 5L in their last 16 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Preston away?
Preston's away record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 0.62 PPG; Preston away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Preston been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Preston in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
1
Draws
0
Preston
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Preston?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Preston have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Preston last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Preston 0-0 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Preston?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Preston see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 75%, Preston 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Nottingham Forest) and 50% (Preston). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Preston in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Preston away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Preston?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Nottingham Forest's games and 50% of Preston's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Preston usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 50% of Preston's.
Do Nottingham Forest and Preston tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Preston in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Preston.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat Preston 3-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 17, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.02 xG and Preston 1.27 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Preston landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.78 / defence 1.43 against Preston attack 0.78 / defence 1.23, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 29% | Draw 29% | Preston 42%, with Preston to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 56%, Preston 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Preston's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.19 PPG, Preston 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Preston (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.