Millwall 0-1 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Millwall at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Millwall vs Hull City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Millwall and Hull City meet at The Den in Championship, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 January 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
Millwall's overall Championship record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Millwall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Millwall's home record at The Den: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Championship appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Millwall are significantly better at The Den than their overall form suggests.
Hull City (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Championship outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Millwall, 2 for Hull City and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.2 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Millwall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Millwall 39% versus Hull City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Millwall 32% | Hull City 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Millwall 1.01 xG and Hull City 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Millwall attack 0.730 / defence 0.847 | Hull City attack 0.865 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.007. Millwall's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 71 Millwall games / 72 Hull City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Hull City 24%. Fair-value odds: Millwall 2.56 | Draw 2.78 | Hull City 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Hull City's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Millwall are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Millwall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.75 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates corroborate: Millwall 30% | Hull City 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Millwall vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: The Den • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Hull City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Millwall 1.01 / Hull City 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Millwall attack 0.730 / def 0.847 | Hull City attack 0.865 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.007 • Poisson stance: Millwall (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Millwall xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Hull City xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Millwall vs Hull City kick off?
Millwall vs Hull City kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at The Den.
What was the final score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Millwall 0 - 1 Hull City.
Where is Millwall vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at The Den.
What competition is Millwall vs Hull City part of?
Millwall vs Hull City is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Millwall vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Millwall a 39% chance of winning, Hull City a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Millwall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Millwall vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Millwall and Hull City will score (BTTS).
Will Millwall vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
Record (5 meetings): Millwall 0W | Draws 3 | Hull City 2W.
What form are Millwall and Hull City in?
Millwall (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Hull City (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Millwall's attack rating (0.73) and Hull City's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (0.86x) against Millwall's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 71/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Millwall Win
39%
2.54
36%
2.76
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Millwall xG
Total xG
1.75
0.74
Hull City xG
2.54
39%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
19%
5.31
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.5 | 12.9 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Millwall vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.2%.
How many goals are Millwall and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Millwall and 0.74 for Hull City, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Millwall vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Millwall's recent record stands at 23W 20D 28L from 71 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Millwall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hull City, meanwhile, have gone 24W 21D 26L across 71 games — 1.31 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Millwall against 1.31 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Millwall have managed 14W 7D 13L from 34 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hull City's away record stands at 14W 6D 14L across 34 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Millwall are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Millwall
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Millwall and Hull City in coming into this match?
Millwall have gone 23W 20D 28L in their last 71 games (1.25 PPG), while Hull City have gone 24W 21D 26L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Millwall at home or Hull City away?
Millwall's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Millwall at home: 1.44 PPG; Hull City away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Millwall or Hull City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Millwall have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Hull City in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Millwall have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Millwall
4
Draws
5
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Millwall and Hull City?
From 10 meetings on record, Millwall have won 1, Hull City have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Millwall and Hull City last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Millwall 0-2 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Millwall and Hull City?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Millwall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Millwall 35%, Hull City 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Millwall) and 59% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Millwall keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Millwall have failed to score in 29% of games; Hull City in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Millwall home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Millwall play Hull City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Millwall's recent matches and 59% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Millwall vs Hull City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Millwall's recent games and 59% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Millwall and Hull City tend to score early?
Millwall have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hull City in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Millwall 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Millwall 0-1 at The Den, Regular Season - 27, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Millwall 1.01 xG and Hull City 0.74 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Millwall fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Millwall attack 0.73 / defence 0.85 against Hull City attack 0.86 / defence 0.99, drawn from 71/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Millwall 39% | Draw 36% | Hull City 24%, with Millwall to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Millwall 32%, Hull City 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Millwall's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hull City's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Millwall 1.25 PPG, Hull City 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Millwall (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Hull City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.