Middlesbrough 1-2 Hull City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Middlesbrough at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Middlesbrough face Hull City.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hull City make the trip to Riverside Stadium to face Middlesbrough in Championship (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Middlesbrough (all games): 5W 1D 4L across their last 10 — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Middlesbrough's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Hull City have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hull City's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.40 for Hull City. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Middlesbrough edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 19 Apr 2023, ended Middlesbrough 3–1 Hull City — a Middlesbrough win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Middlesbrough half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Hull City half-time and goal-timing data (last 66 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Middlesbrough 58% versus Hull City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Middlesbrough 61% | Hull City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Middlesbrough 1.56 xG and Hull City 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Middlesbrough attack 0.973 / defence 0.847 | Hull City attack 1.023 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.192. Data: built from Middlesbrough's last 66 games and Hull City's last 66.
Result probabilities: Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 26% | Hull City 25%. Fair-value odds: Middlesbrough 2.04 | Draw 3.80 | Hull City 4.05. Middlesbrough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Middlesbrough at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Middlesbrough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Middlesbrough 20% (last 10 home games) | Hull City 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Middlesbrough vs Hull City | Competition: Championship, matchday 21 | Venue: Riverside Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 26% | Hull City 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Middlesbrough 1.56 / Hull City 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Middlesbrough attack 0.973 / def 0.847 | Hull City attack 1.023 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Middlesbrough (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Middlesbrough xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Hull City xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City FAQs
What time does Middlesbrough vs Hull City kick off?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 December 2023 at Riverside Stadium.
What was the final score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Middlesbrough 1 - 2 Hull City.
Where is Middlesbrough vs Hull City being played?
The match is being played at Riverside Stadium.
What competition is Middlesbrough vs Hull City part of?
Middlesbrough vs Hull City is a Championship fixture (matchday 21) (England).
Who is favourite to win Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our statistical model gives Middlesbrough a 49% chance of winning, Hull City a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Middlesbrough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Middlesbrough and Hull City will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Middlesbrough vs Hull City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Middlesbrough's attack at 0.97x the league average against Hull City's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hull City's attack (1.02x) against Middlesbrough's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from Middlesbrough's last 66 games and Hull City's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Middlesbrough Win
49%
2.04
26%
3.80
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Middlesbrough xG
Total xG
2.59
1.03
Hull City xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
5%
19.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Middlesbrough and Hull City expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Middlesbrough and 1.03 for Hull City, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Middlesbrough vs Hull City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Middlesbrough come into this having played 66 games, going 30W 12D 24L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L.
On the other side, Hull City sit at 1.33 PPG from 66 outings (22W 22D 22L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Middlesbrough against 1.33 for Hull City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Middlesbrough's home form reads 18W 7D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Hull City have taken 1.18 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 12D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Middlesbrough come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Middlesbrough are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Hull City are on 1.21 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Middlesbrough
Blended
Hull City
Blended
Middlesbrough (Home) vs Hull City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Middlesbrough
Blended
Hull City
Blended
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Form FAQs
What form are Middlesbrough and Hull City in coming into this match?
Middlesbrough have gone 30W 12D 24L in their last 66 games (1.55 PPG), while Hull City have gone 22W 22D 22L in their last 66 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Middlesbrough at home or Hull City away?
Middlesbrough's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Middlesbrough at home: 1.85 PPG; Hull City away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Championship. The most recent was on 23 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Hull City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Middlesbrough won Hull City 1-4 Middlesbrough on 5 Dec 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Middlesbrough have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Hull City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Middlesbrough
1
Draws
4
Hull City
Recent Meetings
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Middlesbrough have won 5, Hull City have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Middlesbrough and Hull City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 May 2026: Hull City 1-0 Middlesbrough.
Who has won more matches between Middlesbrough and Hull City?
Middlesbrough have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Middlesbrough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Middlesbrough 46%, Hull City 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Middlesbrough) and 52% (Hull City).
On the defensive side: Middlesbrough keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Hull City in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Middlesbrough home games / Hull City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Middlesbrough vs Hull City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Middlesbrough and Hull City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 54% of Hull City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Middlesbrough and Hull City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Middlesbrough's recent games and 52% of Hull City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Middlesbrough and Hull City matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Middlesbrough's recent matches and 67% of Hull City's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Middlesbrough 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Middlesbrough 1-2 at Riverside Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Middlesbrough 1.56 xG and Hull City 1.03 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hull City outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Middlesbrough attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Hull City attack 1.02 / defence 1.16, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Middlesbrough 49% | Draw 26% | Hull City 25%, with Middlesbrough to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Middlesbrough 61%, Hull City 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Middlesbrough's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Hull City's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Middlesbrough 1.55 PPG, Hull City 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Middlesbrough (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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