Hull City 3-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hull City at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Cardiff encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Cardiff travel to The MKM Stadium to take on Hull City in Championship (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Hull City — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hull City at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cardiff stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cardiff away from home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Hull City at 1.60 PPG versus Cardiff's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Hull City hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Cardiff and 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Feb 2023, ended Hull City 1–0 Cardiff — a Hull City win.
The head-to-head data gives Hull City an edge — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Hull City in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cardiff in-play tendencies (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 55% versus Cardiff 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 46% | Cardiff 37%). Note also that Cardiff surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Hull City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 1.25 xG and Cardiff 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.990 / defence 1.001 | Cardiff attack 0.905 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.197. Data: built from Hull City's last 67 games and Cardiff's last 67.
Result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 32%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 2.53 | Draw 3.46 | Cardiff 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hull City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Hull City 4 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hull City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Hull City 70% (last 10 home games) | Cardiff 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, matchday 22 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 40% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Hull City 1.25 / Cardiff 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.990 / def 1.001 | Cardiff attack 0.905 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Hull City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Cardiff xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hull City vs Cardiff FAQs
What time does Hull City vs Cardiff kick off?
Hull City vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 16 December 2023 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Hull City 3 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Hull City vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Cardiff part of?
Hull City vs Cardiff is a Championship fixture (matchday 22) (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 40% chance of winning, Cardiff a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Hull City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Hull City and Cardiff will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Hull City vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.99x the league average against Cardiff's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cardiff's attack versus Hull City's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Hull City's last 67 games and Cardiff's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hull City Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.46
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Hull City xG
Total xG
2.33
1.08
Cardiff xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hull City vs Cardiff Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Hull City and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Hull City and 1.08 for Cardiff, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Cardiff?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hull City come into this having played 67 games, going 23W 22D 22L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.18 PPG from 67 outings (22W 13D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hull City on 1.36 PPG, Cardiff on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Hull City's home form reads 13W 10D 10L across their last 33 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.06 points per game from their last 33 away games (10W 5D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hull City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Hull City are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.03 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 67 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
Hull City (Home) vs Cardiff (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hull City
Blended
Cardiff
Blended
❓ Hull City vs Cardiff Form FAQs
What form are Hull City and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 23W 22D 22L in their last 67 games (1.36 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 22W 13D 32L in their last 67 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Cardiff away?
Hull City's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.48 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from November 2021. All of them came in Championship. The most recent in our data was on 25 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Dec 2023, when Hull City won Hull City 3-0 Cardiff.
Hull City's record when hosting Cardiff specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Hull City
0
Draws
1
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Hull City vs Cardiff H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Cardiff?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Hull City have won 7, Cardiff have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Cardiff last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 February 2025: Cardiff 1-0 Hull City.
Who has won more matches between Hull City and Cardiff?
Hull City have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 54%, Cardiff 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Hull City) and 46% (Cardiff).
On the defensive side: Hull City keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Cardiff in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hull City vs Cardiff Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hull City and Cardiff matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Hull City's recent matches and 36% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Hull City and Cardiff matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Hull City's recent games and 46% of Cardiff's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Cardiff matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Hull City's recent matches and 58% of Cardiff's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hull City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Cardiff 3-0 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 1.25 xG and Cardiff 1.08 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cardiff landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Cardiff attack 0.91 / defence 0.92, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 40% | Draw 29% | Cardiff 32%, with Hull City to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 46%, Cardiff 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Cardiff's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.36 PPG, Cardiff 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock. Hull City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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