Lincoln vs QPR – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates QPR at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lincoln vs QPR fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees QPR travel to LNER stadium to take on Lincoln. The game is scheduled for Saturday 30 January 2027, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Championship games this season, Lincoln have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Lincoln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lincoln's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at LNER stadium this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, QPR stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Championship matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for QPR, so this record blends games from this season and last.
QPR's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Lincoln) versus 1.10 (QPR). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lincoln register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, QPR in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lincoln in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
QPR in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lincoln 50% versus QPR 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lincoln 55% | QPR 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lincoln 1.32 xG and QPR 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lincoln attack 0.838 / defence 1.547 | QPR attack 0.878 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.292. Data: 14 Lincoln games / 60 QPR games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lincoln 29% | Draw 23% | QPR 48%. Fair-value odds: Lincoln 3.45 | Draw 4.35 | QPR 2.08. QPR hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates QPR as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on QPR offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lincoln 70% | QPR 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lincoln vs QPR | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: LNER stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lincoln 29% | Draw 23% | QPR 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Lincoln 1.32 / QPR 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Lincoln attack 0.838 / def 1.547 | QPR attack 0.878 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: QPR (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Lincoln xG
Expected Goals
1.75
QPR xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lincoln vs QPR kick off?
Lincoln vs QPR is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 30 January 2027 at LNER stadium.
Where is Lincoln vs QPR being played?
The match is being played at LNER stadium.
What competition is Lincoln vs QPR part of?
Lincoln vs QPR is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Lincoln vs QPR?
Our statistical model gives Lincoln a 29% chance of winning, QPR a 48% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making QPR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lincoln vs QPR?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Lincoln and QPR will score (BTTS).
Will Lincoln vs QPR have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lincoln and QPR?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lincoln and QPR in?
Lincoln (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. QPR (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Lincoln's attack at 0.84x the league average against QPR's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, QPR's attack versus Lincoln's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
QPR Win
29%
3.46
23%
4.28
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Lincoln xG
Total xG
3.07
1.75
QPR xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
5%
20.03
13%
7.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.7 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.1 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lincoln vs QPR?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Lincoln and QPR expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.75 for QPR, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Lincoln vs QPR?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lincoln's recent record stands at 35W 13D 12L from 60 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Lincoln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
QPR, meanwhile, have gone 21W 16D 23L across 60 games — 1.32 PPG, with W-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for QPR is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lincoln by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over QPR heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lincoln have managed 19W 6D 5L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
QPR's away record stands at 8W 10D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.13 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lincoln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lincoln are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; QPR are on 1.38 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: QPR in 63%.
Defensively: Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lincoln
Blended
QPR
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lincoln and QPR in coming into this match?
Lincoln have gone 35W 13D 12L in their last 60 games (1.97 PPG), while QPR have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lincoln at home or QPR away?
Lincoln's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lincoln at home: 2.10 PPG; QPR away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Lincoln or QPR been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lincoln have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, QPR in 22%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lincoln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
QPR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lincoln 63%, QPR 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lincoln) and 50% (QPR). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: QPR in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lincoln home games / QPR away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lincoln play QPR?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Lincoln's games and 57% of QPR's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lincoln vs QPR usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lincoln's matches and 50% of QPR's.
Do Lincoln and QPR tend to score early?
Lincoln have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, QPR in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
More UK football predictions →