Leeds 7-0 Cardiff – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Leeds (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Leeds face Cardiff.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Elland Road plays host to Leeds versus Cardiff in Championship, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 1 February 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Leeds (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Leeds have posted 9W 1D 0L at Elland Road — 2.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Elland Road. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.20 — Leeds are significantly better at Elland Road than their overall form suggests.
Cardiff have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Championship this season, Cardiff have posted 1W 7D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Leeds. A 0.80 PPG lead over Cardiff (2.20 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Leeds lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Leeds winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Leeds goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
Cardiff goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Leeds 37% versus Cardiff 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Leeds 48% | Cardiff 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Leeds 2.37 xG and Cardiff 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Leeds attack 1.422 / defence 0.609 | Cardiff attack 1.136 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.034. Leeds carry an above-average attack strength of 1.422 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Cardiff bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Leeds's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Leeds's defence rating of 0.609 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 75 Leeds games / 75 Cardiff games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9%. Fair-value odds: Leeds 1.35 | Draw 5.88 | Cardiff 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Leeds (74%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Leeds are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Leeds 30% | Cardiff 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Leeds vs Cardiff | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Elland Road • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Feb 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 47% | xG Leeds 2.37 / Cardiff 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Leeds attack 1.422 / def 0.609 | Cardiff attack 1.136 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Leeds (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Leeds xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Cardiff xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Leeds vs Cardiff kick off?
Leeds vs Cardiff kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 1 February 2025 at Elland Road.
What was the final score in Leeds vs Cardiff?
Leeds 7 - 0 Cardiff.
Where is Leeds vs Cardiff being played?
The match is being played at Elland Road.
What competition is Leeds vs Cardiff part of?
Leeds vs Cardiff is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our statistical model gives Leeds a 74% chance of winning, Cardiff a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Leeds the favourite.
Will both teams score in Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Leeds and Cardiff will score (BTTS).
Will Leeds vs Cardiff have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Cardiff?
Record (3 meetings): Leeds 2W | Draws 1 | Cardiff 0W.
What form are Leeds and Cardiff in?
Leeds (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Cardiff (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Leeds's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Cardiff's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.37. Flip it around — Cardiff's attack (1.14x) against Leeds's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Leeds Win
74%
1.36
17%
5.79
9%
11.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
3 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Leeds xG
Total xG
3.08
0.71
Cardiff xG
1.36
74%
Home win
5.79
17%
Draw
11.11
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
9%
10.65
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
1%
118.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.9 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Leeds vs Cardiff?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Leeds and Cardiff expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Leeds and 0.71 for Cardiff, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Leeds vs Cardiff?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Leeds come into this having played 75 games, going 45W 17D 13L for 2.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Cardiff sit at 1.24 PPG from 75 outings (26W 15D 34L), a run that reads D-D-W-D-W across their last five.
Leeds carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.79 PPG clear of Cardiff — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Leeds's home form reads 29W 4D 4L across 37 games on their own ground, a 2.46 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.03 PPG overall — Leeds are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cardiff have taken 1.08 points per game from 37 outings (10W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Leeds come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Leeds are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Cardiff are on 1.15 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Defensively: Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Leeds
Current Season
Cardiff
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Leeds and Cardiff in coming into this match?
Leeds have gone 45W 17D 13L in their last 75 games (2.03 PPG), while Cardiff have gone 26W 15D 34L in their last 75 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Leeds at home or Cardiff away?
Leeds's home record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Leeds at home: 2.46 PPG; Cardiff away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Leeds or Cardiff been keeping clean sheets recently?
Leeds have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Cardiff in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Leeds go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Leeds won 7-0 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Leeds have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cardiff — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Leeds
1
Draws
0
Cardiff
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Leeds and Cardiff?
From 4 meetings on record, Leeds have won 3, Cardiff have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Leeds and Cardiff last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2025, when Leeds 7-0 Cardiff.
Who has won more matches between Leeds and Cardiff?
Leeds have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Leeds are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Leeds 38%, Cardiff 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Leeds) and 54% (Cardiff). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Leeds keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Cardiff in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Leeds home games / Cardiff away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Leeds play Cardiff?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Leeds's recent matches and 57% of Cardiff's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Leeds vs Cardiff usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Leeds's matches and 54% of Cardiff's.
Do Leeds and Cardiff tend to score early?
Leeds have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Cardiff in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Leeds run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Cardiff.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Leeds beat Cardiff 7-0 at Elland Road, Regular Season - 30, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Leeds 2.37 xG and Cardiff 0.71 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. Leeds beat their projection by 4.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Leeds attack 1.42 / defence 0.61 against Cardiff attack 1.14 / defence 1.21, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Leeds 74% | Draw 17% | Cardiff 9%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Leeds 48%, Cardiff 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Leeds's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cardiff's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 2.19 average — above their attacking norm. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 7 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.