Hull City 2-1 Swansea – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Swansea at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hull City vs Swansea encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Swansea make the trip to The MKM Stadium to face Hull City in Championship, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Saturday 21 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Hull City (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Championship fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Hull City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The MKM Stadium, Hull City have gone 1W 4D 5L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Swansea's overall Championship record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Swansea, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Swansea away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Swansea arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hull City lead 1W to 2W over the last 6 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–1 with Swansea winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hull City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Swansea goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hull City 61% versus Swansea 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hull City 51% | Swansea 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hull City 0.82 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hull City attack 0.750 / defence 1.101 | Swansea attack 0.956 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.034. Hull City's attack strength of 0.750 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 67 Hull City games / 67 Swansea games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hull City 25% | Draw 35% | Swansea 39%. Fair-value odds: Hull City 4.00 | Draw 2.86 | Swansea 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Swansea as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Swansea if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Hull City 50% | Swansea 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hull City vs Swansea | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: The MKM Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hull City 25% | Draw 35% | Swansea 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Hull City 0.82 / Swansea 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Hull City attack 0.750 / def 1.101 | Swansea attack 0.956 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.034 • Poisson stance: Swansea (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Hull City xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Swansea xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hull City vs Swansea kick off?
Hull City vs Swansea kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at The MKM Stadium.
What was the final score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Hull City 2 - 1 Swansea.
Where is Hull City vs Swansea being played?
The match is being played at The MKM Stadium.
What competition is Hull City vs Swansea part of?
Hull City vs Swansea is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Hull City vs Swansea?
Our statistical model gives Hull City a 25% chance of winning, Swansea a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Swansea the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hull City vs Swansea?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Hull City and Swansea will score (BTTS).
Will Hull City vs Swansea have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
Record (6 meetings): Hull City 1W | Draws 3 | Swansea 2W.
What form are Hull City and Swansea in?
Hull City (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Swansea (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hull City's attack at 0.75x the league average against Swansea's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Swansea's attack (0.96x) against Hull City's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Swansea Win
25%
3.93
35%
2.84
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Hull City xG
Total xG
1.91
1.09
Swansea xG
3.93
25%
Home win
2.84
35%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
9%
11.65
17%
5.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 16.1 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hull City vs Swansea?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Hull City and Swansea expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Hull City and 1.09 for Swansea, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Hull City vs Swansea?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hull City come into this having played 67 games, going 22W 20D 25L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. The sample for Hull City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Swansea sit at 1.25 PPG from 67 outings (22W 18D 27L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Swansea is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Hull City against 1.25 for Swansea. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Hull City's home form reads 9W 14D 11L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Swansea have taken 1.24 points per game from 34 outings (11W 9D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Hull City are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Swansea are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hull City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hull City
Blended
Swansea
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hull City and Swansea in coming into this match?
Hull City have gone 22W 20D 25L in their last 67 games (1.28 PPG), while Swansea have gone 22W 18D 27L in their last 67 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hull City at home or Swansea away?
Swansea's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hull City at home: 1.21 PPG; Swansea away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Swansea won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hull City have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Swansea — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Hull City
4
Draws
3
Swansea
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hull City and Swansea?
From 10 meetings on record, Hull City have won 3, Swansea have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Hull City and Swansea last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Hull City 2-1 Swansea.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hull City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Swansea are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hull City 59%, Swansea 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Hull City) and 53% (Swansea).
On the defensive side: Hull City have failed to score in 26% of games; Swansea in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hull City home games / Swansea away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hull City play Swansea?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hull City's games and 59% of Swansea's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hull City vs Swansea usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Hull City's recent games and 53% of Swansea's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hull City and Swansea tend to score early?
Hull City have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Swansea in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hull City defy the odds to beat Swansea 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hull City beat Swansea 2-1 at The MKM Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Championship. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hull City 0.82 xG and Swansea 1.09 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Hull City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hull City attack 0.75 / defence 1.10 against Swansea attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hull City 25% | Draw 35% | Swansea 39%, with Swansea to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Hull City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hull City 51%, Swansea 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hull City's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Swansea's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hull City 1.28 PPG, Swansea 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hull City win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.