Derby 0-1 Millwall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Derby take on Millwall.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Championship clash, Regular Season - 34 as Derby welcome Millwall to Pride Park Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 February 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Derby stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Championship matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Derby's home record at Pride Park Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Championship appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Derby are significantly better at Pride Park Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Millwall — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Championship fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Millwall's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Millwall's 1.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Derby's 0.20 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Derby have won 0, Millwall 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derby trading profile (79 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games).
Millwall trading profile (79 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derby 48% versus Millwall 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derby 49% | Millwall 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derby 0.91 xG and Millwall 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derby attack 0.695 / defence 1.036 | Millwall attack 0.856 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.360 / away 1.032. Derby's attack strength of 0.695 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Derby games / 79 Millwall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 34% | Millwall 33%. Fair-value odds: Derby 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Millwall 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.82 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates are neutral: Derby 40% | Millwall 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derby vs Millwall | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Pride Park Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Feb 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derby 33% | Draw 34% | Millwall 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Derby 0.91 / Millwall 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Derby attack 0.695 / def 1.036 | Millwall attack 0.856 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.360 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Derby xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Millwall xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derby vs Millwall kick off?
Derby vs Millwall kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 February 2025 at Pride Park Stadium.
What was the final score in Derby vs Millwall?
Derby 0 - 1 Millwall.
Where is Derby vs Millwall being played?
The match is being played at Pride Park Stadium.
What competition is Derby vs Millwall part of?
Derby vs Millwall is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Derby vs Millwall?
Our statistical model gives Derby a 33% chance of winning, Millwall a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Derby vs Millwall?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Derby and Millwall will score (BTTS).
Will Derby vs Millwall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
Record (3 meetings): Derby 0W | Draws 2 | Millwall 1W.
What form are Derby and Millwall in?
Derby (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Millwall (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Derby's attack at 0.69x the league average against Millwall's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Millwall's attack versus Derby's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.03
34%
2.98
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Derby xG
Total xG
1.82
0.92
Millwall xG
3.03
33%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.76
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 14.8 | 6.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derby vs Millwall?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Derby and Millwall expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Derby and 0.92 for Millwall, a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Derby vs Millwall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 79 outings, Derby have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 35W 16D 28L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Millwall's form line: 26W 23D 30L from 79 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Derby on 1.53 PPG, Millwall on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Derby have posted 1.79 PPG from 39 outings (21W 7D 11L).
On the road, Millwall have gone 10W 14D 15L from 39 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derby come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Derby are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Millwall are on 0.99 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 79 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derby
Current Season
Millwall
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derby and Millwall in coming into this match?
Derby have gone 35W 16D 28L in their last 79 games (1.53 PPG), while Millwall have gone 26W 23D 30L in their last 79 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derby at home or Millwall away?
Derby's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derby at home: 1.79 PPG; Millwall away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Derby or Millwall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derby have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Millwall in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Derby and Millwall runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. They last met on 10 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derby's record when hosting Millwall specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Derby
3
Draws
3
Millwall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derby and Millwall?
From 6 meetings on record, Derby have won 0, Millwall have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Derby and Millwall last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2026, when Millwall 1-0 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Derby and Millwall?
Millwall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Derby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Millwall see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derby 46%, Millwall 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Derby) and 31% (Millwall).
On the defensive side: Derby keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Millwall in 36%; Millwall in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derby home games / Millwall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derby play Millwall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Derby's recent matches and 46% of Millwall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derby vs Millwall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Derby's recent games and 31% of Millwall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derby and Millwall tend to score early?
Derby have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Millwall in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Millwall edge out Derby 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Millwall beat Derby 0-1 at Pride Park Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derby 0.91 xG and Millwall 0.92 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derby fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derby attack 0.69 / defence 1.04 against Millwall attack 0.86 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derby 33% | Draw 34% | Millwall 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Millwall win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derby 49%, Millwall 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derby's trading profile (79 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Millwall's trading profile (79 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derby 1.53 PPG, Millwall 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Millwall win broke the near-deadlock. Derby (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward. Millwall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.