Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wrexham at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs Wrexham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cardiff and Wrexham meet at Cardiff City Stadium in Championship, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cardiff's overall Championship record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cardiff haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Wrexham have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Championship outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Wrexham haven't played a Championship game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Wrexham's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Cardiff half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Wrexham half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 54% versus Wrexham 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 54% | Wrexham 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.17 xG and Wrexham 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Wrexham attack 0.995 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.276. Data: 0 Cardiff games / 46 Wrexham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cardiff 28% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 42%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Wrexham 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wrexham at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wrexham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cardiff 40% | Wrexham 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs Wrexham | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 17 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 28% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Cardiff 1.17 / Wrexham 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Wrexham attack 0.995 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Wrexham (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Wrexham xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs Wrexham kick off?
Cardiff vs Wrexham kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 17 August 2026 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Cardiff 1 - 1 Wrexham.
Where is Cardiff vs Wrexham being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs Wrexham part of?
Cardiff vs Wrexham is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 28% chance of winning, Wrexham a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Wrexham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cardiff and Wrexham will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs Wrexham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Wrexham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cardiff and Wrexham in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cardiff (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cardiff's attack rating (0.85) and Wrexham's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Wrexham's attack (0.99x) against Cardiff's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (0/46 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wrexham Win
28%
3.52
30%
3.38
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.63
1.46
Wrexham xG
3.52
28%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
13%
7.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.6 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cardiff and Wrexham expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cardiff and 1.46 for Wrexham, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs Wrexham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cardiff's recent record stands at 27W 10D 9L from 46 games, a 1.98 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. Cardiff haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Wrexham, meanwhile, have gone 19W 14D 13L across 46 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-W-W-L-D in their last five. Wrexham haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cardiff by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Wrexham heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 17W 2D 4L from 23 games — 2.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Wrexham's away record stands at 9W 7D 7L across 23 trips, a 1.48 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cardiff come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cardiff are averaging 1.96 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Wrexham are on 1.50 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wrexham in 65%.
Defensively: Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Pre-Season
Wrexham
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and Wrexham in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 27W 10D 9L in their last 46 games (1.98 PPG), while Wrexham have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or Wrexham away?
Cardiff's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 2.30 PPG; Wrexham away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cardiff or Wrexham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Wrexham in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Cardiff
1
Draws
0
Wrexham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and Wrexham?
From 1 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, Wrexham have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and Wrexham last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when Cardiff 1-1 Wrexham.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cardiff are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Wrexham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 48%, Wrexham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Cardiff) and 44% (Wrexham).
On the defensive side: Cardiff keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Wrexham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / Wrexham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play Wrexham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cardiff's recent matches and 56% of Wrexham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cardiff vs Wrexham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Cardiff's recent games and 44% of Wrexham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and Wrexham tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Wrexham in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cardiff and Wrexham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 1, as Cardiff and Wrexham drew 1-1 in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.17 xG and Wrexham 1.46 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Wrexham attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 0/46 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 28% | Draw 30% | Wrexham 42%, with Wrexham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 54%, Wrexham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Wrexham's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cardiff arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.