Cardiff 0-0 West Brom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cardiff at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cardiff vs West Brom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Championship encounter, Regular Season - 45 sees West Brom travel to Cardiff City Stadium to take on Cardiff. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 April 2025, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cardiff — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Championship outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cardiff are significantly better at Cardiff City Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Championship games this season, West Brom have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
West Brom's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Championship this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cardiff at 0.70 PPG versus West Brom's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour West Brom, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Cardiff.
The last 7 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that West Brom have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Cardiff in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
West Brom in-play tendencies (90 games, 45 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cardiff 52% versus West Brom 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cardiff 48% | West Brom 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cardiff 1.04 xG and West Brom 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cardiff attack 0.816 / defence 1.123 | West Brom attack 0.863 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.023. Data: 90 Cardiff games / 90 West Brom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | West Brom 33%. Fair-value odds: Cardiff 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | West Brom 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 41% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
On the Poisson output, Cardiff are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cardiff offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Cardiff 70% | West Brom 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cardiff vs West Brom | Competition: Championship, Regular Season - 45 | Venue: Cardiff City Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Apr 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | West Brom 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Cardiff 1.04 / West Brom 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Cardiff attack 0.816 / def 1.123 | West Brom attack 0.863 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.023 • Poisson stance: Cardiff (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Cardiff xG
Expected Goals
0.99
West Brom xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cardiff vs West Brom kick off?
Cardiff vs West Brom kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 April 2025 at Cardiff City Stadium.
What was the final score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Cardiff 0 - 0 West Brom.
Where is Cardiff vs West Brom being played?
The match is being played at Cardiff City Stadium.
What competition is Cardiff vs West Brom part of?
Cardiff vs West Brom is a Regular Season - 45 fixture in the Championship (England).
Who is favourite to win Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our statistical model gives Cardiff a 36% chance of winning, West Brom a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cardiff the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cardiff and West Brom will score (BTTS).
Will Cardiff vs West Brom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
Record (7 meetings): Cardiff 0W | Draws 4 | West Brom 3W.
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in?
Cardiff (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. West Brom (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cardiff's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against West Brom's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, West Brom's attack versus Cardiff's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cardiff Win
36%
2.77
30%
3.28
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Cardiff xG
Total xG
2.04
0.99
West Brom xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
12%
8.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Cardiff and West Brom expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Cardiff and 0.99 for West Brom, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Cardiff vs West Brom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cardiff's recent record stands at 28W 21D 41L from 90 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five.
West Brom, meanwhile, have gone 34W 31D 25L across 90 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cardiff on 1.17 PPG, West Brom on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cardiff have managed 17W 8D 20L from 45 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
West Brom's away record stands at 10W 18D 17L across 45 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of West Brom's season.
The Goals Picture
Cardiff are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; West Brom are on 1.32 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: West Brom in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 90 Results — Championship
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cardiff
Current Season
West Brom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cardiff and West Brom in coming into this match?
Cardiff have gone 28W 21D 41L in their last 90 games (1.17 PPG), while West Brom have gone 34W 31D 25L in their last 90 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cardiff at home or West Brom away?
Cardiff's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cardiff at home: 1.31 PPG; West Brom away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Cardiff or West Brom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cardiff have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, West Brom in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cardiff and West Brom runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Championship. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2021, when West Brom won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cardiff's record when hosting West Brom specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cardiff
5
Draws
3
West Brom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cardiff and West Brom?
From 8 meetings on record, Cardiff have won 0, West Brom have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cardiff and West Brom last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2025, when Cardiff 0-0 West Brom.
Who has won more matches between Cardiff and West Brom?
West Brom have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cardiff see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
West Brom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cardiff 47%, West Brom 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Cardiff) and 49% (West Brom).
On the defensive side: Cardiff have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cardiff home games / West Brom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cardiff play West Brom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Cardiff's games and 64% of West Brom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cardiff vs West Brom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Cardiff's recent games and 49% of West Brom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cardiff and West Brom tend to score early?
Cardiff have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, West Brom in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cardiff's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cardiff and West Brom finished level at 0-0 at Cardiff City Stadium, Regular Season - 45, in the Championship. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cardiff 1.04 xG and West Brom 0.99 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cardiff fell 1.0 short of their projected output. West Brom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cardiff attack 0.82 / defence 1.12 against West Brom attack 0.86 / defence 0.98, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cardiff 36% | Draw 30% | West Brom 33%, with Cardiff to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cardiff 48%, West Brom 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cardiff's trading profile (90 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
West Brom's trading profile (90 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cardiff 1.17 PPG, West Brom 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cardiff (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. West Brom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.